ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[smilingsynic]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

SS,

Apex and MB both have something else to do outside of ES trading, just like you and me

Over time, I do believe those who stay and post regularly here are the ones sharing "what they see" and that exchange is a great thing by itself.

p.s. I have my share of weekend meets with other "traders" locally here and ended up doing teaching lessons on trading 101 with no one really listening ... maybe B1S2's view is true

Mr. Chan,

I've seen your articles on NYSE TICK and appreciate your observations.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from smilingsynic:

Mr. Chan,

I've seen your articles on NYSE TICK and appreciate your observations.

It is a privilege that I am enjoying as a researcher of the market and a designer of trading software.

The concepts I talked about NYSE TICK is something of interest to many here too. My core thinking is that price actions down to tick level is that they are incompatible with higher level time frame studies at all. It is similar to physics theories on quantum mechanics that are not compatible with classic physics.

That is something I love to push forward and see if we can breakthrough on price analysis beyond tape reading (something I am still pretty good at) ...

Edit: Pulsescan can chip in if he is willing to share some of his work

 

[Jahajee]

Quote from Pekelo:

So Simon was wrong about reaching 1040 today, but the pattern is still the same that was posted a week ago. Today we pulled back to the SMA line but luckily closed above it. So the going over the SMA went up only to 980ish instead of my 1040ish expectation before pulling back. Here is the action:

The next 2 days should be both up and reach 1020-1040...

Market is at the crossroads, on the verge 100 plus SPX points - up or down.
I am bullish, but I concede time is running out for the bullish scenario targeting 1050 to 1100 SPX.
But, it appears as if the worst has been seen so any down mov emay be limited to 920.

Or, volatility could be wrung out of this marker with reduced daily ATRs of 15 to 20 over a week or so, going nowhere, between 900 and 1000. Doubt it, VIX is stubornly hanging above 50 and traders are still skittish.

 

[ammo]

Quote from ammo:

mini h$s on 30 min es, 960 is neckline,break to 890-900,if it plays out

this neckline was broken yesterday around 980,minus 70 points is 910

 

[Pekelo]

Well, I don't like to give 2 contradictory predictions, but it occured to me that if I look at Friday's action both as an up day and a pullback, then the Monday's up was the second up from the SMA, and the pattern already played out.The second up didn't go higher as the first, they both stopped around 980ish...
If the pattern is over, 900 below we go...
Of course I have the advantage of knowing the overnight weakness (-26), so this is not a prediction, just an explanation...

 

[ammo]

Quote from Pekelo:

Well, I don't like to give 2 contradictory predictions, but it occured to me that if I look at Friday's action both as an up day and a pullback, then the Monday's up was the second up from the SMA, and the pattern already played out.The second up didn't go higher as the first, they both stopped around 980ish...
If the pattern is over, 900 below we go...
Of course I have the advantage of knowing the overnight weakness (-26), so this is not a prediction, just an explanation...

predicting has never been harder,and in easier times it's usually just close,so when you get it right it's a bonus

 

[ammo]

Quote from BoyBrutus:

I got 965, 958 two nips from my volume at price chart

PP 965
R1 1013
S1 942


Enthios Chart

http://cartadiem.com/charts/08-08/E-Oct21-00.png

the under 930 lightly traded gap are on bb's chart has been entered,it looks like there is a ledge around 918 and then the nip at 903. 130 on the eur/usd area was supposed to be support,it's trading in the 128's, not good for the credit woes worriers

 

[pulsescan]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

My core thinking is that price actions down to tick level is that they are incompatible with higher level time frame studies at all. It is similar to physics theories on quantum mechanics that are not compatible with classic physics.

...

Edit: Pulsescan can chip in if he is willing to share some of his work

Ditto,
the shorter term time frames are best used to time entries on longer term charts. Example: Daily chart shows an overbought scenario on the stochastic and is turning down. price action is also turning down. 60 min chart is also overbought on the stochastic and is turning down. price action is following suite. This entry would be a low risk trade if you place the stop above the previous bars high. You could then ride the downtrend all the way down to the end until the stochastic turns up from the oversold level. This is the only valid use of intraday charts i.e. ticks, 1 min, 5 min charts etc. trying to find patterns and trends on intraday charts is waiste of time and a quick way to blow out an account.

I usually don't share too many specifics on systems etc being that what i do and how i do it is all proprietary.

However, i share what i can.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

I still believe that 800 is in the cards and perhaps much lower. Again, I reiterate, I never risk more than 2 percent of TLNW on any one trade/idea, so it really doesn't matter whether I am right or I am wrong.

 

[volente_00]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I still believe that 800 is in the cards and perhaps much lower. Again, I reiterate, I never risk more than 2 percent of TLNW on any one trade/idea.

Why TLNW ?

This number is constantly changing so is your stop always changing so the 2% stays constant ?

Or do you only base the 2% on the exact value your tlnw is when you enter the trade ?


The problem I have with the rule is if your tlnw is 500k and you open a trade and then you lose 50k on other positions, is your stop size still $10,000 on that position even though $10,000 now represents more than 2% of tlnw ?

Why use a stop for a certain % amount ? I thought you prefer the stop to be outside the noise which means it should be based on the chart not some % of a fluctuating number.


I like the% risk idea but I think it could lead to some large losses if your trading account is 100k and your tlnw is 1 mil then on every trade your are risking 20% of your 100k account which is relatively high. A 20% drawdown on 1 trade will screw most people up mentally when it comes to trading.