ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Pekelo]

Quote from volente_00:

Pek are those numbers cash or ES ?

It reallydoesn't matter, because the difference is small, like 6 points. But I use the SPX for longer term, so it is cash.

Quote from Zodiac4u:

So you think that the economic calender paints a positive picture for this bullish notion

Now nobody reads my predictions? I laid out the next 2 weeks and so far we have been following it just dandy. Not because I expect this economic news or that, but because it is a chart pattern, basicly reversion to the mean.

So I expect to go through the SMA 9 maybe tomorrow or Monday the latest and after passing it by 50-70 points (thus the 1040 guess) we will pull back to it, then rally again, possibly reaching 1100.

I posted this back on Monday..:

Quote from Pekelo:

I got the PPT's marketplay for the next 10 days, here it is:

-rally to the SMA on the daily chart 990-1000, done by Tuesday.
- bounce back from SMA, down to 950-920 making 2nd bottom
- rally and breakthrough SMA, reaching 1050+
-falling back to the SMA
- further rally, possibly 1100 what will be another nice short opportunity.

-check
-check
-underway

Now the levels are just approximate, I don't use resistance or Fib. They were overshot in both directions, but that is fine, the pattern still the same..So if it is going to be 1040-50 or even 70, I don't know for sure, but we will go above the SMA by a decent amount, then pullback to it before going even higher....

P.S.: These are cash numbers...

 

[Jahajee]

Quote from Pekelo:

It reallydoesn't matter, because the difference is small, like 6 points. But I use the SPX for longer term, so it is cash.



Now nobody reads my predictions? I laid out the next 2 weeks and so far we are following it just dandy. Not because I expect this economic news or that, but because it is a chart pattern, basicly reversion to the mean.

So I expect to go through the SMA 9 maybe tomorrow or Monday the latest and after passing it by 50-70 points (thus the 1040 guess) we will pull back to it, then rally again, possibly reaching 1100.

I posted this back on Monday..:



-check
-check
-underway

Now the levels are just approximate, I don't use resistance or Fib. They were overshot in both directions, but that is fine, the pattern still the same..So if it is going to be 1040-50 or even 70, I don't know for sure, but we will go above the SMA by a decent amount, then pullback to it before going even higher....

P.S.: These are cash numbers...

Good prediction, on the mark, so far.

I think SPX can reach 1050 by next week but I am not confident it can move much further. We shall see how it behaves at that time.
Hedge Funds redemption a major hang on the markets. Too many selling the rallies. Expect more wild swings as market retests low and then attempts to hammer out a solid bottom.

 

[Pekelo]

Well, we are in the danger zone right now, halfway at the double bottom's height. This is where the dragon formation usually fails. Since the height is about 200 points, a failure here would mean reaching 950-200=750, before another decent bounce, and then the rest of my prediction won't play out.

Overnight action was pretty weak, sliding from 955 to 908, so let's keep our fingers crossed, and hope for closing in the green... I will post a chart latter...

 

[Buy1Sell2]

I'll need to see a touch of 1075 OR a longer term buy signal before I will begin cautiously looking long. I remain selling rallies for now. My edge is that I do not risk more that 2 percent of TLNW on any one trade/idea. This is the only true edge in trading. I do not look at risk to reward. I only look at risk to TLNW. Reward will take care of itself.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

In the face of strong weekly level downside momentum, daily/4hr/1hr divergence buy signals are much less reliable and usually stop at the lowest target level.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from Pekelo:

Well, we are in the danger zone right now, halfway at the double bottom's height. This is where the dragon formation usually fails. Since the height is about 200 points, a failure here would mean reaching 950-200=750, before another decent bounce,

Here is the chart:

 

[elovemer]

...

 

[Pekelo]

This is one big battle right now, both SPX and NDX are at their SMA 9 trying to decide to break through or fail....

 

[GermanTrader]

7:16 L 936/2 pt St/6 pt Tgt.

7:19 flat.

First ES trade ever in cash. I usually stick with the YM but need something with more room to grow. Now how's about startraitor and BoyBrutus posting their trades again?

 

[kinggyppo]

Another 60 minute breakout, the past few have failed. Let's see if this one has legs.