All this has made us gullible; gullible enough to believe that we could give up our
manufacturing jobs and still live the good life. And now here we are; the baby boom
generation and we have let ourselves get skewed. This week the nation sat by and
watched as billions of dollars in equity disappeared before our eyes. The Blue Chip Dow
30, the NASDAQ Composite and the Broad Benchmark S&P 500 all sold off back to their
bear market lows.
The hallucinations of the Wall Street wizards turned into a bad acid trip. The immense
worldwide credit bubble they created has burst. Now a huge anti-bubble is forming â in
a Newtonian sense, it is likely to create an equal and opposite reaction. Those to whom
we owe money, and god knows we are the greatest debtorâs nation on earth, are not
likely to invest in our next sub-prime Ponzi scheme. I fear that we sown the seeds of
our own demise. If and when the economies of the world can figure out how to get
along without us, they will.
Ten years ago, the giant Cayman Island hedge fund, called Long Term Capital
Management hired a group of math wizards including several former university
professors, including two Nobel Prize-winning economists, who dreamt up an all
encompassing algorithm, a so-called the model of everything.
Long-Term Capital Management commanded more than $100 billion in assets. Between
1994 and 1998 the fund showed a return on investment of more than 40% per annum.
However, its enormously leveraged gamble with various forms of arbitrage involving
more than $1 trillion dollars went bad, and in one month, LTCM lost $1.9 billion. The
collapse of the Hedge Fund was American financial disaster, with significant
international monetary implications, that put the entire financial system jeopardy.
Prompted by deep concerns about LTCM's thousands of derivative contracts, in order to
avoid a panic by banks and investors worldwide, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
stepped in to organize a bailout with the various major banks at risk. Wall Street feared
that its unraveling could set off a systemic meltdown.
So, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York called in the big financial houses to help with
the rescue. It worked. The crisis was averted. LTCM's positions were liquidated in an
orderly fashion.
No firm had a closer view of Long-Term Capital than Bear Stearns, the broker that
cleared its trades. And it was Bear that sounded the first shot in the current mortgage
crisis. In summer 2007, amid a sharp rise in delinquencies on subprime mortgages, two
hedge funds sponsored by Bear that invested in high-rated mortgage securities
imploded. As foreclosures kept rising, other institutions suffered losses and the crisis
spread. The leveraged exposure eventually took down Bear Stearns.
However, the problem was much bigger than anyone expected or was willing to admit.
The problem wasnât with one or two hedge funds. The whole financial system was
involved. Trillions of dollars of new cash and credit are being pumped in the system.
The result was that real estate prices were inflated to the point where genuine buyers,
hard working people able to save a down payment couldnât afford to buy a home. All
the while, good loans were being mixed with bad loans and were sold as AAA grade
investment vehicles, backed by bogus overleveraged unregulated insurance policies, the
so-called credit swaps.
But this time, the fix doesn't seem to stay fixed. Bad positions can't be unwound in an
orderly manner; there are too many of them. And it's not just a handful of speculators
who are getting whacked: it's effecting the entire population of the United States of
America, Great Britain and Europe.
The Fed is buying assets that no one in their right mind would touch. Her majesty's
government is now proprietor of 50 billion pounds worth of banking shares; the Bush
administration, under the guidance of Treasury Sectary Paulson is preparing to enter
the banking business too. But as trillions go in, trillions more leak out. So far this year,
world equity markets have lost $20 trillion. U.S. property markets alone have lost $6
trillion over the last two years. It is not just a few investment decisions that are being
corrected, in other words, it's the delusions of an entire generation. And why? Because
after overleveraged liquidity comes the liquidation. After the outsized recklessness
comes the appropriate regret.
We have all lived through recessions (1973-74 and 1980-82). Recessions are simply
part of the business cycle and government cannot repeal the business cycle. At some
point the economic cycle will find a way to eventually get back to solid growth. This will
not be the last recession.
However, depressions are caused by governments. Depressions are the result major
policy mistakes. Our government, not republicans, not democrats, the government
made major policy mistakes some by deregulating mortgage lending. The government
made major policy mistakes by allowing the five large investment banks to increase
their leverage to 30 or 40 to one. The government made major policy mistakes by
failing to oversee the rating agencies.
Coming to terms with the cost of our mistakes is what we have to take away from the
financial crisis of 2008.
An immediate comprehensive plan is called for. Not to come up with a real solutions
risks a much greater problem. To not take actions to stem the credit crisis would be
that major policy mistake which would compound all the other mistakes.