ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[kinggyppo]

Quote from kinggyppo:

long spy 87.10 for a scalp stop 86.10. vix top so far 74.46. monthly true range (set at 2) 26.43 wow.

out 87.75.

Here is an updated monthly chart.

 

[tommymoose]

Quote from kinggyppo:

out 87.75.

Here is an updated monthly chart.

Lets pretend for a second that the monthly chart you just posted is a 5-min or 15-min chart.... what would you expect to happen?

I'd expect a small bounce (38.2% retrace at most) off that pivot (02-03 low) and then an eventual break. Momentum can't totally shift that quickly.

 

[Zodiac4u]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Imagine what will happen to Monday trading across the world if we do not close positive today.

There will be probably be no market by then.

How did you come up with this scenario?

 

[ggoyal]

fading the rallies has worked almost everyday now. big ones and small ones

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Every attempt to run up today is met with huge size selling at market.

The liquidation process to raise cash may finish early today and for the week.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from Zodiac4u:

How did you come up with this scenario?

If we have a significant down day today, think about where the Asian markets would open?

If you see limit down in multiple Asian countries, it is not very hard for Europe to do the same as the panic spread. They may open for 1/2 hr and then close for the rest of the day due to limit down.

Then panic will spread to America ...

It is very simple human nature.

Thus last line of defense is today, upon how we close today.

 

[Spectre2007]

5 minute vol fan.. pointing to 930.. with 60 minute pointing to 940..

confluence of lines..

 

[Daal]

SP on track to its worse week in history - bloomberg

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from tommymoose:

Lets pretend for a second that the monthly chart you just posted is a 5-min or 15-min chart.... what would you expect to happen?

I'd expect a small bounce (38.2% retrace at most) off that pivot (02-03 low) and then an eventual break. Momentum can't totally shift that quickly.

the opening range created a triangle, we are in the range with spy 87.82 being halfway between the high/low on spy intaday. I am hoping for a break to 90. Intraday we have a lower low, and a lower high, so there is a base, but I am not going to be a fool and say we can't go lower. I do not want to miss the rally though it should be a monster when it occurs.

 

[Spectre2007]

VIX should drop to about 50.. for the range trade.

200 day MA is way above at 1200 or so.