ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from millionaire7:

Is there a way to calculate the stop value on ES depending upon the volatility index. 2 points used to be a good stop value for ES, but recently it is getting hit within couple of minutes of the trade.

I generally trade 5min, 10min charts.

Thanks for any reply.

Make sure its placed in an area where stops have already recently been cleared and hope the momentum carries the way your positioned. I.E. to get short wait for a quick thrust up that gets reversed quick. If you place your stop just above that and the market breaks that, then it really does want to go against you and the trade is wrong. If it doesn't, you get a sick entry. However large this "spike" is will depend on volatility, but theres no use in using a set tick/point stop... instead adjust position size to allow for the appropriate stop.
 
Quote from newguy05:

1000 is almost tested, two situations will happen now

1) We rally to 1100 in the next few days, then a retest of 1000 around mid/late oct as the double bottom and begin the uptrend for the next 2-3 months

2) Today's test of 1000 was it, and the afternoon rally is the start of the uptrend for the next 2-3 months.

I dont use any of the sophicated dragon/frog/peacock whatever patterns, just look at the price action, volume, vix, s/r, and put/call ratio. The rally this afternoon is a strong signal.

wait until end of the month before you bears eat me :cool:

note: we are still in a bear market and very likely to go lower next year, my analysis for an uptrend is for the next 2-3month before the next step down.

#1 in progress, although got stopped around the 1080 level. I believe this is the double bottom. Went long at 1004 with covered call at strike 1020 and a stop loss at 955 for the whole position. Need to see the charts for the next few days for confirmation, once confirmed i will remove the short calls.
 
Quote from BoyBrutus:

Top call :cool:

Thank you. :cool:

Lately my overnight models are greatly skewed thus not much can be done along the line of finding key buy/sell zone in the day.

Forced to read the market with only good old PA and projections. :(
 
Quote from newguy05:

#1 in progress, although got stopped around the 1080 level. I believe this is the double bottom. Went long at 1004 with covered call at strike 1020 and a stop loss at 955 for the whole position. Need to see the charts for the next few days for confirmation, once confirmed i will remove the short calls.

I believe we will make a bottom for the year in the week of oe between the 15 th an 17 th. Til then watch those knives.
 
Quote from volente_00:

I believe we will make a bottom for the year in the week of oe between the 15 th an 17 th. Til then watch those knives.

I just bought in at 1006

looking for a Rally to start as of now moving into the end of the Week

Ive got a feeling the W-day boys will be out in force tomorrow
 
Quote from regal_2012:

I just bought in at 1006

looking for a Rally to start as of now moving into the end of the Week

Ive got a feeling the W-day boys will be out in force tomorrow

Damnit... I just got long the dow a few minutes ago... I should probably close out now... the ultimate fade has spoken.

Analysis coming up.

I can't explain it, but going long the ES here at 999 stop at 997.75 looks like a good trade to me. Break through LOD taking out stops, then run higher and don't look back during the over-night. Don't hurt me if I'm wrong, but aye, its only a point and a quarter to risk... my trades in. :)
 
The Dow is sitting in a support zone. I'm not betting the farm, but it worth taking low-risk shots at in on the way down. Long DDM at 41.00, stop at 39.65... third thrust could happen tomorrow AM so giving it enough breathing room to stay in the trade if that happens. Heres the DJIA cash chart with targets it blue boxes (first target not shown, its todays high though).
 

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