ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

Status
Not open for further replies.
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

For mutual funds and many pension trusts, the liquidation this time is for real.

Most of those early boomer fund holders will not put the money withdrawn this time back into the stock market ever again. Nor would they put yearly IRA or whatever tax related saving into stock market again.

In short, we are 2 full years ahead of the expected boomer run on the stock market.
More...
LC,thanks for all your input
 
The contraction in multiples effect of the boomer run has been at hand for several years lc. Many boomers shifted into real estate based assets and lost their ass there as well.

The net effect of boomers shifting to "safe" assets, treasuries, cd's, money markets, etc. will provide needed capital to our gov and financial system. Long term investment of relatively cheap capital plus, long term contracting multipes, plus worldwide long term growth equal attractive us based equities long term.

I realize your point was directed at the short term headwinds us equity markets face and wanted to expand on long term effects as well. Thank you for your insightful posts.


Quote from Lawrence Chan:

For mutual funds and many pension trusts, the liquidation this time is for real.

Most of those early boomer fund holders will not put the money withdrawn this time back into the stock market ever again. Nor would they put yearly IRA or whatever tax related saving into stock market again.

In short, we are 2 full years ahead of the expected boomer run on the stock market.
More...
 
Thanks.

The reason I brought that up is that if we do not see daily volume subside, and that liquidation gets stronger over the week, we may see a quick drop down to the 900 level Wave mentioned.

I am, however, less optimistic in terms of the run up after that, due to the much needed cash inflow from yearly boomer contributions are gone.
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Thanks.

The reason I brought that up is that if we do not see daily volume subside, and that liquidation gets stronger over the week, we may see a quick drop down to the 900 level Wave mentioned.

I am, however, less optimistic in terms of the run up after that, due to the much needed cash inflow from yearly boomer contributions are gone.
More...

mkt is setting up for the next leg down!
 
Quote from vertigo3:

Yesterday, NYSE new lows divided by Total issues traded were 59.8%

I believe this is unprecedented based on data since 1978 ( I stopped compiling this data in 2005 (when I quit my New York job).

The rule I had uncovered was simple, buy the close on any day when the NYSE new Lows divided by total issues was greater than 30%.

It had a perfect record until Sept 16, 2008, that is the only time it has not worked.

Whether yesterday's unprecedented 59.8% reading is an outlier, that could become predictive of some new rule of excessive readings is yet to be seen, but the simple fact of the matter is that 59.8% is greater than 30% and historically, odds greatly favor that the S&P 500 cash will close higher than the previous day's close.

Here is a list of the > 30% readings for the past year along with the price performance of the S&P 500 on the day following the extreme reading.

Xtreme.........NL/TotIss.........-%-..........NEXT DAY C[1]-C change
08/16/07......1132/3453......32.8%......SPX +2.46%
01/22/08......1114/3252......34.2%......SPX +2.14%
07/15/08......1304/3299......39.5%......SPX +2.51%
09/18/08......1108/3301......33.6%......SPX +4.03%
09/17/08......1238/3312......37.4%......SPX +4.33%
09/16/08......1292/3304......39.1%......SPX -4.17%<<<<dud>>>>>
09/29/08......1170/3289......35.6%......SPX +5.42%
10/06/08......1973/3300......59.8%......SPX ?

this 59.8% reading is truly off the charts. So huge. absolutely the biggest reading since 1978 (I can say this because I am virtually certain that there has never been a reading this high in the 1978-2005 data I based the study on (prior to 2005) and it is only recently that this bear market has been able to generate +30% readings.
Interesting, the history speaks for itself, with only one bad call. We'll see.
More...

at last, the voice of reason.

thank you for the data....
 
Quote from kinggyppo:

Yeah its too bad for such a good trader you have so many blind spots. Its a turnoff, not everyone is a master of the universe.
More...

The "blind spots" have been created purposely by me to filter out the trades/ideas that are less reliable/profitable. This way, there are much fewer variables to have to worry about. It's all well and good to come up with a theory about new lows versus issues, but the real question is "What can be done with it?" My answer is "nothing can be done" when looked at by itself. Where is the entry, stop and exit with this info? That's what is needed. Thus, the theory is singulary useless. :)

--Thank you for the kind comment concerning my trading--
 
Quote from princessa:

where is that?
More...

In the Politics and Religion section*. :)

At least that's where 50% of his last 30 posts are...

*That forum is also famous for having the most open minds!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top