ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Pulses, you are such ugly bear. Really think that we can go only lower and lower?
By this volatility will can be 200 points down in 2 days and what we will do next few years?

I think that we need sometimes make some little bear rally.
Moreover we are on support that held 80 years. Do you really expect break it of first attempt, puff, 5 minutes and 80 years are gone?
They need leave some hope to small traders and investors, if everybody will leave casino it will go bankrupt. They must sometimes let a bit win small average long Joe.

I think that we must go somewhere to 1150-1200 as minimum in next days, markets can not go just down without retracement. and we did not have any bigger some time.
by this volatility 100 points can be done in 2 days.

Moreover, is is sad so many companies to have troubles with low share prices - if guilty or innocent all are punished.
 
Yesterday, NYSE new lows divided by Total issues traded were 59.8%

I believe this is unprecedented based on data since 1978 ( I stopped compiling this data in 2005 (when I quit my New York job).

The rule I had uncovered was simple, buy the close on any day when the NYSE new Lows divided by total issues was greater than 30%.

It had a perfect record until Sept 16, 2008, that is the only time it has not worked.

Whether yesterday's unprecedented 59.8% reading is an outlier, that could become predictive of some new rule of excessive readings is yet to be seen, but the simple fact of the matter is that 59.8% is greater than 30% and historically, odds greatly favor that the S&P 500 cash will close higher than the previous day's close.

Here is a list of the > 30% readings for the past year along with the price performance of the S&P 500 on the day following the extreme reading.

Xtreme.........NL/TotIss.........-%-..........NEXT DAY C[1]-C change
08/16/07......1132/3453......32.8%......SPX +2.46%
01/22/08......1114/3252......34.2%......SPX +2.14%
07/15/08......1304/3299......39.5%......SPX +2.51%
09/18/08......1108/3301......33.6%......SPX +4.03%
09/17/08......1238/3312......37.4%......SPX +4.33%
09/16/08......1292/3304......39.1%......SPX -4.17%<<<<dud>>>>>
09/29/08......1170/3289......35.6%......SPX +5.42%
10/06/08......1973/3300......59.8%......SPX ?

this 59.8% reading is truly off the charts. So huge. absolutely the biggest reading since 1978 (I can say this because I am virtually certain that there has never been a reading this high in the 1978-2005 data I based the study on (prior to 2005) and it is only recently that this bear market has been able to generate +30% readings.
Interesting, the history speaks for itself, with only one bad call. We'll see.
 
Quote from vertigo3:

Yesterday, NYSE new lows divided by Total issues traded were 59.8%

I believe this is unprecedented based on data since 1978 ( I stopped compiling this data in 2005 (when I quit my New York job).

The rule I had uncovered was simple, buy the close on any day when the NYSE new Lows divided by total issues was greater than 30%.

It had a perfect record until Sept 16, 2008, that is the only time it has not worked.

Whether yesterday's unprecedented 59.8% reading is an outlier, that could become predictive of some new rule of excessive readings is yet to be seen, but the simple fact of the matter is that 59.8% is greater than 30% and historically, odds greatly favor that the S&P 500 cash will close higher than the previous day's close.

Here is a list of the > 30% readings for the past year along with the price performance of the S&P 500 on the day following the extreme reading.

Xtreme.........NL/TotIss.........-%-..........NEXT DAY C[1]-C change
08/16/07......1132/3453......32.8%......SPX +2.46%
01/22/08......1114/3252......34.2%......SPX +2.14%
07/15/08......1304/3299......39.5%......SPX +2.51%
09/18/08......1108/3301......33.6%......SPX +4.03%
09/17/08......1238/3312......37.4%......SPX +4.33%
09/16/08......1292/3304......39.1%......SPX -4.17%<<<<dud>>>>>
09/29/08......1170/3289......35.6%......SPX +5.42%
10/06/08......1973/3300......59.8%......SPX ?

this 59.8% reading is truly off the charts. So huge. absolutely the biggest reading since 1978 (I can say this because I am virtually certain that there has never been a reading this high in the 1978-2005 data I based the study on (prior to 2005) and it is only recently that this bear market has been able to generate +30% readings.
Interesting, the history speaks for itself, with only one bad call. We'll see.
More...

Very well Sir, let's see what happens. I assume your data is based on previous bear markets as well as bulls?
 
NYSE new low reading since 1970s may not useful in the current scenario.

My first guess was 1920s to 1940s. But there were not many issues listed at the time anyway.

2nd though, simply look at NASDAQ 100 reading in 2000-2003.

That probably can provide some useful insights into the current situation.
 
entire data back to 1978, that was the first year that the NYSE started calculating new lows on a rolling 52 week basis, before 1978, new lows were calculated back to the beginning of the previous year until April (I think), and then the calc was changed to the current year. So you ended up looking back over 15 months of data until sometime in the spring and then it would only compare prices to the lows since Jan1 of the current year.
 
Quote from vertigo3:

this 59.8% reading is truly off the charts. So huge. absolutely the biggest reading since 1978 (I can say this because I am virtually certain that there has never been a reading this high in the 1978-2005 data I based the study on (prior to 2005) and it is only recently that this bear market has been able to generate +30% readings.
Interesting, the history speaks for itself, with only one bad call. We'll see.
More...

Singularly useless. :)
 
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