ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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In my opinion, today's selloff is by no means "normal" as LC already pointed out. Call it a profit-taking selloff (for the winners) or simply a get-out-now-that-I'm-breakeven selloff (for the losers) after last week's monster rally. Regardless, I doubt a sellof of this magnitude is sustainable in the current environment.
Jon Najarian correctly pointed out on Fast Money that the rule of the game is obscenely skewed in favor of the market makers and the specialists, who are exempt from the current short selling ban, which will only result in trader apathy. Just who would dare to take the opposite side?
Jon Najarian correctly pointed out on Fast Money that the rule of the game is obscenely skewed in favor of the market makers and the specialists, who are exempt from the current short selling ban, which will only result in trader apathy. Just who would dare to take the opposite side?
As minimum you have buddy here doing exactly the same.
I was whole day trying to catch all up moves so I made 4 long trades those ended like 1-2 tick "winners". I could not believe that in such situation we will end on the LOD when market makers get so much money and power.
I simply hesitated short in this situation (even if I am not american). So I was playing with fire because contratrend on days like yesterday ....
I probably had more luck than intelligence.
I simple need quickly change my behavior because otherwise I will end like jagmot. MMs have apparently nothing against immediately profit ripping last money from weak hands not looking on complex situation and taxpayer help.
Still can non believe that will all money pumped in and new rules ES is not bouncing at minimum for few days.
NQ is much weaker(undersandable) and we can test the low from past week quickly.
I was whole day trying to catch all up moves so I made 4 long trades those ended like 1-2 tick "winners". I could not believe that in such situation we will end on the LOD when market makers get so much money and power.
I simply hesitated short in this situation (even if I am not american). So I was playing with fire because contratrend on days like yesterday ....
I probably had more luck than intelligence.
I simple need quickly change my behavior because otherwise I will end like jagmot. MMs have apparently nothing against immediately profit ripping last money from weak hands not looking on complex situation and taxpayer help.
Still can non believe that will all money pumped in and new rules ES is not bouncing at minimum for few days.
NQ is much weaker(undersandable) and we can test the low from past week quickly.
The only good news is that we're sitting on the 60min 200sma on both the YM and ES (is that even a good news?) and that RSI is low (but could get lower, since it's not critically low).
I don't know if it was IB lag but yesterday the S&P opened @ 1255 and the futures showed 1240, and I was thinking "Hey! 1255 should come up, nice place to short", but never did, and totally screwed my reasoning process.
Was that a normal situation? (S&P showing 1253 @ 9.30 while the futures showed a high of 1250.x?)
I don't know if it was IB lag but yesterday the S&P opened @ 1255 and the futures showed 1240, and I was thinking "Hey! 1255 should come up, nice place to short", but never did, and totally screwed my reasoning process.
Was that a normal situation? (S&P showing 1253 @ 9.30 while the futures showed a high of 1250.x?)
FWIW
PA rules, but here are some thoughts about the psychology of the markets:
I can't address the complications (and apparent hesitation to remain long) created by the draconian elimination of short selling in financials, I think a large part of the psychological weight on the market yesterday was uncertainty as to the details for the bailout and the current lack of a signed-sealed-delivered agreement.
I am assuming that even just the hint that details are starting to fall into place could be the inspiration for relief rally,
but the relief rally will be subject to news related to details of bail-out acceptance.
Hanky and Bernanke and Cox are all supposed to be testifying in front of Senate banking committee today
and If I read the time of this testimony correctly, it was 15:30 (assume that means 3:30pm East coast, and assume I read it correctly),
if that's the case, Senate banking committee might use that testimony to Q&A about details of the bailout without necessarily having a concrete bailout agreement in hand at the time.
- if there is no agreement (or hint that pieces of the agreement are falling into place), then markets might spend the day searching for stops.
PA rules, but here are some thoughts about the psychology of the markets:
I can't address the complications (and apparent hesitation to remain long) created by the draconian elimination of short selling in financials, I think a large part of the psychological weight on the market yesterday was uncertainty as to the details for the bailout and the current lack of a signed-sealed-delivered agreement.
I am assuming that even just the hint that details are starting to fall into place could be the inspiration for relief rally,
but the relief rally will be subject to news related to details of bail-out acceptance.
Hanky and Bernanke and Cox are all supposed to be testifying in front of Senate banking committee today
and If I read the time of this testimony correctly, it was 15:30 (assume that means 3:30pm East coast, and assume I read it correctly),
if that's the case, Senate banking committee might use that testimony to Q&A about details of the bailout without necessarily having a concrete bailout agreement in hand at the time.
- if there is no agreement (or hint that pieces of the agreement are falling into place), then markets might spend the day searching for stops.
CORRECTION IN TIME
That time read was on a banner on cnbc was from their London bureau and it was CET. which equates to 9:30am East Coast US
sorry for the confusion.
TESTIMONY SHOULD BEGIN 9:30AM EAST COAST TIME
I found this on a forex site
At 9:30 a.m. EDT, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before the Senate Banking Committee along with FHFA Director James Lockhart and SEC Chairman Christopher Cox. The policymakers will be joined by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson at 10 a.m. EDT.
That time read was on a banner on cnbc was from their London bureau and it was CET. which equates to 9:30am East Coast US
sorry for the confusion.
TESTIMONY SHOULD BEGIN 9:30AM EAST COAST TIME
I found this on a forex site
At 9:30 a.m. EDT, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before the Senate Banking Committee along with FHFA Director James Lockhart and SEC Chairman Christopher Cox. The policymakers will be joined by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson at 10 a.m. EDT.
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