ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[ammo]

your turning into terrell owens

 

[tommymoose]

Just a little AH trade. Short NQ 1748.50, stop at 50.25... target 1737.50

[10:01] moving stop to 47.25

 

[tommymoose]

Quote from tommymoose:

Just a little AH trade. Short NQ 1748.50, stop at 50.25... target 1737.50

[10:01] moving stop to 47.25

Covering 1739.75... probably a little premature but I'll take it and run. It'll actually probably spike down now that I've closed my position.

 

[dstod]

Quote from tommymoose:

Heres an SPX weekly chart.

You can see we're trading at the bottom of a channel. Although its not on the chart, everyone is aware there is a some serious capitulation volume going on. Every time we have ~2X-2.5X the average volume on the index products (ETFs, futures, actual shares, whatever) a bounce is right around the corner. Stat studies also show that the probability of being able to sell at a higher price 1 to 2 weeks out is very high. All that said, I don't think we're going to drive too much lower from this level... bear market rally is due.

Weekly MACD histo is bullish in the same way it has been in the most recent market tops and bottoms, however it lacks the same on the monthly (which the others have had).

From a long-term investment perspective, I'll refrain from jumping the gun and trying to get long here... a smart (and lurking) trader that used to post here said something smart to me just a little while ago... "bottoms aren't an event, they're a process". Its not worth getting steamrolled trying to catch it the first time when you can get in on a retrace to the "bottom". It'll take some time.

Sick chart last night. That 1134 level nearly marked today's bottom.

 

[Spectre2007]

notice 2:30 is critical timing point.

 

[Spectre2007]

there is a food chain of debt, that is unwinding...like a cancer that has spread to different components of the economy...

commercial debt, and consumer debt....

sell rallies and buy dips of significant deviations...till critical time window is finished.

 

[Spectre2007]

in the past I have said that the 4% yield on the 30 year would crack in a Japanese type deflationary pattern.

 

[saliva]

Can somebody point me out in the right direction?

First, I've been reading from various sources that nobody really knows just how large this subprime induced credit fiasco is. So, how could a government be able to institute a massive bailout for the current mess?

Second, I hear that the FED is revisiting the same old policies of RTC (Resolution Trust Corporation) that was created in the days of S&L debacle. But, as far as I know, S&L was largely an American issue, namely, it had no economic ties to or impact on either Europe or Asia. (Even the Great Depression of 1929 was an "all American" brand!) On the contrary, the current credit meltdown is a global crisis.

So my question is what proof of assurance is there that this rescue package will actually work when in fact nobody knows for certain how big the damage is? What if it doesn't work, what then? Where will all this end? When the nation is bankrupt?

 

[riaamaan]

I'm not dismissing the idea of default on US Treasury's. It's a very real possibility.

 

[Pholeuon]

Hello, has somebody some idea how will affect ban of short selling trading index futures? I mean usual behavior, patters, reaction in S/R zone, to oversold conditions, etc.

I do not know if it is just ban of new shot positions because if it will be obligation cover the existing ones than covering funds will drive price through roof and than it will fall back more than techs during bubble.

But I am afraid that even just impossibility open new short position will change usual mode.
As minimum by ESTX50 i see huge spikes and falls - very unusual for it.
And look at ES - it moves like ER2 as minimum