ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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last nite I was scanning the media wires, its full of people with 'fear', I'm talking about 'mom n pops' on main street ...

so the selling will continue where the public will start dumping securities from pensions and 401k's...

the public doesn't want anything to do with equities, they want to be out of the market and in cash with fixed returns,///credit markets,..
 
07-15-08 09:14 AM

I don't make predictions. I only trade with the trend and place trailing stops. However, it would not at all surprise me to see 800 in the next year or two.

(Page 6765)
 
11-16-07 08:57 AM

All equity investments (muts) outside of the trading account were pulled at the close yesterday. I am 100 percent in cash and short the ES --Long Yen futures versus the USD as well


(Page 3991)

Disregard the Yen futures and the ES part. I have been in and out of Yen Futures and ES numerous times throughout the last year, but have remained in cash outside of the trading account. That amount is 80 percent of my portfolio.
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

last nite I was scanning the media wires, its full of people with 'fear', I'm talking about 'mom n pops' on main street ...

so the selling will continue where the public will start dumping securities from pensions and 401k's...

the public doesn't want anything to do with equities, they want to be out of the market and in cash with fixed returns,///credit markets,..
More...

Anyone want to quote the yield on the 90 day tbill?
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

last nite I was scanning the media wires, its full of people with 'fear', I'm talking about 'mom n pops' on main street ...

so the selling will continue where the public will start dumping securities from pensions and 401k's...

the public doesn't want anything to do with equities, they want to be out of the market and in cash with fixed returns,///credit markets,..
More...
was in the oex in 87,everyone thought it was gonna drop like a rock,next day,big rally,big money buys cheap and panic is often the bottom
 
Quote from ammo:

was in the oex in 87,everyone thought it was gonna drop like a rock,next day,big rally,big money buys cheap and panic is often the bottom
More...
But who said this week's selloff is the symptom of "panic" selling? Take for example, the Dow dropped about 500 points on Monday, which amounts to about 5%. Back in '87, the Dow also dropped about 500 points but that's equivalent to about 25% at the time!

Not exactly the same by any stretch of the imagination. We're just scratching the surface for what's to come. When we start dropping by more than 1,000 points on the day, then I'll start considering the notion of panic.
 
Here is the current monthly SP futures continuation chart. As you know, I have posted earlier versions of this chart several times prior and it is what governs my long term bearishness. I will not be getting long in equity investment full force for quite some time. I will however begin buying back into my mutuals now at the rate of 1 percent of the portfolio per month. Once the monthly bases and turns up, I will go back to a strong asset allocation model heavily weighted in equities. --But not now. In trading, I believe in all in, all out. In the non margined 80 percent of the portfolio, dollar cost averaging is the correct method in a down turn.
 

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