ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Lawrence Chan]

I do not use CCI so do not have statistics on that.

My pure price action research though, showing that,

1. Rally from short term down to 15 min from open - yes.

2. BUT, there were at least 3 cases off my head where that fails very fast if the 15 min rally fails to convert into a stronger one on say 30-min or hourly.

3. The 3 cases are 87 crash, 98 Russian bond crisis, and right after 911 reopen of mkt.

4. So, if the bounce works, it works great. When it fails, it fails big time. Not many inbetween cases.

5. We already failed that rally attempt once yesterday in the first 2 hour since open.

1230 area as I mentioned yesterday would be key to stop the 20-day breakdown setup, it is something similar to the Oops setup (or Turtle soup whatever ) where the mkt rally strong back into the 20-day range. It may happen but looks remote at this time as that means close at 60s today.

Lawrence

Quote from Pholeuon:

We are too oversold on daily. If I look in past 10 years such conditions ALWAYS started short term rally. No exception.
The short term rally will start just question is WHERE. We are -287 on daily SPY CCI. So oversold we were during past 5 years just ONCE if I see corectly - 28 thFebruary 2007. Did you remember? -250 on daily CCI ALWAYS starts rally. Only major short terms bottoms have such extreme values.

I expect something close to double bottom on SPY /or if report will be positive straight up/ and than to 1320 approximately. Scenario for 1-2 months approximately. And from there whoom somewhere to 1100.

I wonder if the problem of current slide is not some very bad news /something like City bancrupcy or so/ that is known between big boys but not publicly.

Problem is that today is Friday. I can not imagine many going long in such situation when can be publicly know something really ugly. If not Friday I will go long without much thinking by any rally attempt with big stop. But looking on expected weekend bad surprise I am simply afraid.

 

[tommymoose]

From 8/10/08

Quote from tommymoose:


The stock is American Apparel - APP. From a fundamental point of view, I think this stock has a very large upside potential over the next year or two. Technically, its wedging down nicely right into multi-wave support I have. They report earnings tomorrow so that could be the catalyst to jump-start this thing. I'm long from 6.03 with stop at 5.22. First target around ~10. B1S2 let me know if this is too off-topic and I'll remove it.

Chart - http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2024938

Profits taken at target #1 yesterday (1/4 position). Looking to get rid of the next quarter at ~$13... then $16, then holding a runner. Stop at a little above $7.

Despite the index condition, I also just got long PPC at $13.21. Stop just under $11. Target in the high-teens/low-20's.

What can I say... I like stocks with two P's in em

 

[volente_00]

Quote from vertigo3:

When I worked in NYC I used to research technical conditions and write reports out the wazoo. I don't do that anymore and I don't have those reports, but one thing I did do today was look back at days when NYSE trin closed above 2.26,

this is just a visual assessment, but in terms of the ES, 50% retracement of the previous day's range are very common.

This in no way suggests where the RTH open will be the low of the day, many days, the open of the rth is very close to the high for the day.

I don't want to fire up the computer I used to use to make these historical studies and certainly don't want to bother writing the code to pull retracement averages etc., but I have a feeling I might tomorrow morning.

my guess is that regardless of the employment report figures, gap up tomorrow, near 50% of today's range, but then slide lower.

BUT, if prices plunge after 8:30 data (employment report), recovery is likely because the bears will have made BIG $$$ and why ruin a weekend with indecision, close out of bearish positions means buying.

don't do anything until you see the reacton to the employment report.

I have little/no desire to do a statistical study, but that might change when I get up at 2am tomorrow to trade the overnight.

I can tell you this, in terms of the ES, right now, with my perfunctory eyeballing of the days when the TRIN closed above 2.26, odds are favoring that close (tomorrow) will be lower than tomorrow's RTH open, but intraday range high should hit a little above 50% of today's range...

50% of today's RTH range is 1251.50.

Interesting, 50% happens quite often during intraday ranges. Never really tracked day after moves.

One theory that I do follow and trade is this one.

Quote from volente_00:

on the first down day, the smart money is selling

on the second down day the semi smart money is selling more

on the third day of the move, the dumb money is puking their long positions and shorting late to the party as the smart money covers


On the fourth day, the dumb money will be forced to cover on the orchestrated spike to distribute more.

What is today ?

 

[ammo]

nice trade pommy,as far as a bounce ,there is cleavage in yest mp chart at 1246-48,1245 was the 23% fib # from 1200-1313 rally,on another site a guy mentioned how the europeans can buy the dollar and us stocks ,as stocks losses mount,dollar profits soar,until this changes,(dollar starts to come down)they may continue to buy us mrkt,after 1303 to 1225 drop in spu's,this may be over,i'm not to confident with a bounce here but would like to see one as place to get short for continued down move,usually when it's this simple,it doesn't happen edit: yest nip was 41,first res

 

[Pholeuon]

There are always exceptions.
If we will remember todays date 10-20 years later it can be exception....

Btw. I looked on previous days with CCI bellow -250. It suggest big gap down,
sometimes even big fall after that but close positive /often spectacular rally/ and next days positive, retest and rally.

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

.

3. The 3 cases are 87 crash, 98 Russian bond crisis, and right after 911 reopen of mkt.

4. So, if the bounce works, it works great. When it fails, it fails big time. Not many inbetween cases.

Lawrence

 

[Buy1Sell2]

I don't have any swing trades on right now, but will only be looking short on bounces for the foreseeable future as the major reaction low on the daily was violated yesterday.

 

[jagmot]

Quote from jagmot:

I'm now starting to build a short position in the ES.
Looking for an avg price short at about 1296 if we can get there.
1 contract short at 1284.50
Stop 1315 (for all contracts)
More sells at 1288, 1292, 1296, 1302, 1305, and 1308.
Targets are at 1200
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Quick update on this trade.
I've pulled the remaining sells at 1302, 1305, and 1308 and am short 4 contracts at an avg price of 1290.125.
Stop at 1315
Targets are 1264, 1247, 1226, and 1204.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Target 1 hit, moved to 1267.25. 3 contracts short remain.
Stop moved to slightly above BE at 1289.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Moving stop to 1282. We are now starting to hit some oversold levels. I'm going to watch how the next 30 and 60m bars form and probably take the next target (move up target from 1247).

Edit: Covered 2nd contract at 1253.75. 2 contracts short remain

3rd contract covered at 1221.25 (I pulled target lower right before jobs report as I managed to be up).
Stop at 1252 on final contract, going for the last target.

 

[BoyBrutus]

Quote from jagmot:

3rd contract covered at 1221.25 (I pulled target lower right before jobs report as I managed to be up).
Stop at 1252 on final contract, going for the last target.

Superb trade Jagmot

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from saliva:

I quite agree and echoed your sentiment above about jumping in at 1230. But "50% retracement the next day afterstrong down days"? That works only when the trend is still intact. But we have lately broken and closed below the uptrend. Perhaps you could be right. After all, this market has been downright irrational. Let's just hope for the best.

My backtesting included all market conditions--uptrend, downtrend, and chop. On AVERAGE (mean and median) the next day retracement was in the low 50's% (I posted the study on ES trader back last year). If you want, I might be able to find it (I am busy these days during the day and might have no time until the weekend).

If I were intraday trading, I would not be jumping in long until after the open. But since intraday trading is an impossibility for me until at least the 18th, I am forced to either (1) not trade at all; or (2) use backtested swing trading methods that require overnight holding and that require that I pick my spots carefully. I spent most of August doing #1 (not trading at all--August trading is the pits), but that has changed.

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from BoyBrutus:

Superb trade Jagmot

Good work, worthy of an ovation.