ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[tommymoose]

Both ES and NQ tagged some significant support levels an hour ago. We'll see if that will be enough to get the AH "wander higher" PA that seems to happen after viscous sell-off days. It would go pretty well with what Vertigo is saying about the gap-up. Also some divergence on the lower timeframes doesn't hurt (as unreliable as it can be in impulsing markets)

Longshot NQ long here at 1766. Very small stop (1765 soft stop since the spread will kill you %-wise in NQ AH), but willing to re-enter once with another small stop. Target between 1780-1785.

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from vertigo3:

When I worked in NYC I used to research technical conditions and write reports out the wazoo. I don't do that anymore and I don't have those reports, but one thing I did do today was look back at days when NYSE trin closed above 2.26,

this is just a visual assessment, but in terms of the ES, 50% retracement of the previous day's range are very common.

This in no way suggests where the RTH open will be the low of the day, many days, the open of the rth is very close to the high for the day.

I don't want to fire up the computer I used to use to make these historical studies and certainly don't want to bother writing the code to pull retracement averages etc., but I have a feeling I might tomorrow morning.

my guess is that regardless of the employment report figures, gap up tomorrow, near 50% of today's range, but then slide lower.

BUT, if prices plunge after 8:30 data (employment report), recovery is likely because the bears will have made BIG $$$ and why ruin a weekend with indecision, close out of bearish positions means buying.

don't do anything until you see the reacton to the employment report.

I have little/no desire to do a statistical study, but that might change when I get up at 2am tomorrow to trade the overnight.

I can tell you this, in terms of the ES, right now, with my perfunctory eyeballing of the days when the TRIN closed above 2.26, odds are favoring that close (tomorrow) will be lower than tomorrow's RTH open, but intraday range high should hit a little above 50% of today's range...

50% of today's RTH range is 1251.50.

Back around a year ago on this thread I pointed out a similar observation: around 50% retracement the next day afterstrong down days.

When the S&P sells off and closes within the bottom 10% of the daily range, buy if down after hours and look to get out near the pivot point. It might not hit the pivot exactly, but there is usually a good try at it.

My buy order is right above 1230 (I am long at 1242 for a position trade, but for other reasons)
EDIT: Long 1242.50, to be exact.

 

[saliva]

Quote from smilingsynic:

Back around a year ago on this thread I pointed out a similar observation: around 50% retracement the next day afterstrong down days.

When the S&P sells off and closes within the bottom 10% of the daily range, buy if down after hours and look to get out near the pivot point. It might not hit the pivot exactly, but there is usually a good try at it.

My buy order is right above 1230 (I am long at 1242 for a position trade, but for other reasons)
EDIT: Long 1242.50, to be exact.

I quite agree and echoed your sentiment above about jumping in at 1230. But "50% retracement the next day afterstrong down days"? That works only when the trend is still intact. But we have lately broken and closed below the uptrend. Perhaps you could be right. After all, this market has been downright irrational. Let's just hope for the best.

 

[gwac]

Anyone know of any futures contracts that the item trades in a range more than in a trend the vast majority of the time.

I want to test something out.

TIA

 

[W4rl0ck]

Doesn't the vix still have a futures contract?

Quote from gwac:

Anyone know of any futures contracts that the item trades in a range more than in a trend the vast majority of the time.

I want to test something out.

TIA

 

[JSSPMK]

I had a feeling this was about to happen, bastard thing is you never know when, but daily did not look bullish ImPO, so at least the ego is tripping, lunch at Mcd though

 

[Pholeuon]

I definately discovered that I am better contratrend trader like trend follower.
Can you imagine that yesterday I have got in 6 long only scalps 42 ticks per NQ contract and all 6 were positive?
Why I am not able to stay with trend when I wrote in this journal that other futures are pointing more downside like 1811? I am simple not able "overlive" first major retracion if I am with trend. /If I am contratrend I am not trying it, I taking any profit available by slightest sign of hesitation/.

Btw, it looks to me that if the numberswill be not very positive we can test bottom of this yers in ES very quickly.
Last bear ended with exact double bottom in 3 months and retest /nearly tripple bottom/ half year later...
Considering this last few days looks very ugly for longs to me...
It will need big balls take long swing position today...

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from Pholeuon:

I definately discovered that I am better contratrend trader like trend follower.
Can you imagine that yesterday I have got in 6 long only scalps 42 ticks per NQ contract and all 6 were positive?
Why I am not able to stay with trend when I wrote in this journal that other futures are pointing more downside like 1811? I am simple not able "overlive" first major retracion if I am with trend. /If I am contratrend I am not trying it, I taking any profit available by slightest sign of hesitation/.

Btw, it looks to me that if the numberswill be not very positive we can test bottom of this yers in ES very quickly.
Last bear ended with exact double bottom in 3 months and retest /nearly tripple bottom/ half year later...
Considering this last few days looks very ugly for longs to me...
It will need big balls take long swing position today...

I don't think there will be a DB this time round, most developped countries either already are in recession or about to slip into one, monthly charts support that. And once in confirmed recession it is unrealistic to expect stock markets to enjoy the benefits of a proper bull trend. Recessions are good to keep investments staying local, people hurt, but it's important for big business to have recessions that lead to more favourable prices.

 

[Pholeuon]

We are too oversold on daily. If I look in past 10 years such conditions ALWAYS started short term rally. No exception.
The short term rally will start just question is WHERE. We are -287 on daily SPY CCI. So oversold we were during past 5 years just ONCE if I see corectly - 28 thFebruary 2007. Did you remember? -250 on daily CCI ALWAYS starts rally. Only major short terms bottoms have such extreme values.

I expect something close to double bottom on SPY /or if report will be positive straight up/ and than to 1320 approximately. Scenario for 1-2 months approximately. And from there whoom somewhere to 1100.

I wonder if the problem of current slide is not some very bad news /something like City bancrupcy or so/ that is known between big boys but not publicly.

Problem is that today is Friday. I can not imagine many going long in such situation when can be publicly know something really ugly. If not Friday I will go long without much thinking by any rally attempt with big stop. But looking on expected weekend bad surprise I am simply afraid.

 

[tommymoose]

Quote from tommymoose:

Both ES and NQ tagged some significant support levels an hour ago. We'll see if that will be enough to get the AH "wander higher" PA that seems to happen after viscous sell-off days. It would go pretty well with what Vertigo is saying about the gap-up. Also some divergence on the lower timeframes doesn't hurt (as unreliable as it can be in impulsing markets)

Longshot NQ long here at 1766. Very small stop (1765 soft stop since the spread will kill you %-wise in NQ AH), but willing to re-enter once with another small stop. Target between 1780-1785.

Missed my target by a point while I was sleeping... exiting here at 1770.

I'm going to keep the 3AM reversal in mind from now on when trading overnights and going to make sure I exit by then.