ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from rc5781:

not with the looming jobs report tomorrow...
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Well, this market ain't exactly known for being rational. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it were to simply discount any negative news with "it's not as bad as feared even though it has been revised down for ages".

And it shouldn't come as a surprise that like any other days when the market falls off the cliff, we usually close at or near the LOD. Moreover, like any other day following a massive selloff, we shall likely get our bounce tomorrow.

But here's a caveat. While it's true that the market more often than not does bounce after a day of heavy liquidation in an uptrend (eg. higher lows), this is not the case in a downtrend. Unfortunately, we just pierced below the upward sloping trendline. So will we get a bounce tomorrow?
 
Quote from saliva:

I dunno about you but according to my crystal ball, the bottom should be at 1235. But then again, we already hit the low of 1236.50. So that might be the bottom. I dunno. Anyway, I have an MIT order at 1235.25.
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We just hit the low of 1235 but I ain't jumping in long for an obvious reason. I'll jump in at 1230. :D
 
Quote from saliva:

We just hit the low of 1235 but I ain't jumping in long for an obvious reason. I'll jump in at 1230. :D
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but then we'll be below 1233 a very key level....
 
Quote from W4rl0ck:

TRIN closed above 2. :)

A little bear trap tomorrow?
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When I worked in NYC I used to research technical conditions and write reports out the wazoo. I don't do that anymore and I don't have those reports, but one thing I did do today was look back at days when NYSE trin closed above 2.26,

this is just a visual assessment, but in terms of the ES, 50% retracement of the previous day's range are very common.

This in no way suggests where the RTH open will be the low of the day, many days, the open of the rth is very close to the high for the day.

I don't want to fire up the computer I used to use to make these historical studies and certainly don't want to bother writing the code to pull retracement averages etc., but I have a feeling I might tomorrow morning.

my guess is that regardless of the employment report figures, gap up tomorrow, near 50% of today's range, but then slide lower.

BUT, if prices plunge after 8:30 data (employment report), recovery is likely because the bears will have made BIG $$$ and why ruin a weekend with indecision, close out of bearish positions means buying.

don't do anything until you see the reacton to the employment report.

I have little/no desire to do a statistical study, but that might change when I get up at 2am tomorrow to trade the overnight.

I can tell you this, in terms of the ES, right now, with my perfunctory eyeballing of the days when the TRIN closed above 2.26, odds are favoring that close (tomorrow) will be lower than tomorrow's RTH open, but intraday range high should hit a little above 50% of today's range...

50% of today's RTH range is 1251.50.
 
Quote from vertigo3:

When I worked in NYC I used to research technical conditions and write reports out the wazoo. I don't do that anymore and I don't have those reports, but one thing I did do today was look back at days when NYSE trin closed above 2.26,

this is just a visual assessment, but in terms of the ES, 50% retracement of the previous day's range are very common.

This in no way suggests where the RTH open will be the low of the day, many days, the open of the rth is very close to the high for the day.

I don't want to fire up the computer I used to use to make these historical studies and certainly don't want to bother writing the code to pull retracement averages etc., but I have a feeling I might tomorrow morning.

my guess is that regardless of the employment report figures, gap up tomorrow, near 50% of today's range, but then slide lower.

BUT, if prices plunge after 8:30 data (employment report), recovery is likely because the bears will have made BIG $$$ and why ruin a weekend with indecision, close out of bearish positions means buying.

don't do anything until you see the reacton to the employment report.

I have little/no desire to do a statistical study, but that might change when I get up at 2am tomorrow to trade the overnight.

I can tell you this, in terms of the ES, right now, with my perfunctory eyeballing of the days when the TRIN closed above 2.26, odds are favoring that close (tomorrow) will be lower than tomorrow's RTH open, but intraday range high should hit a little above 50% of today's range...

50% of today's RTH range is 1251.50.
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Very astute observation. I second that.:D
 
Good to know.

BTW for swing traders looks like the Qs just broke down out of a weekly triangle. Correct me if this is wrong but looks like it projects to 35 or 8/06 lows. Ouch. The direction is down...




Quote from vertigo3:

When I worked in NYC I used to research technical conditions and write reports out the wazoo. I don't do that anymore and I don't have those reports, but one thing I did do today was look back at days when NYSE trin closed above 2.26,

this is just a visual assessment, but in terms of the ES, 50% retracement of the previous day's range are very common.

This in no way suggests where the RTH open will be the low of the day, many days, the open of the rth is very close to the high for the day.

I don't want to fire up the computer I used to use to make these historical studies and certainly don't want to bother writing the code to pull retracement averages etc., but I have a feeling I might tomorrow morning.

my guess is that regardless of the employment report figures, gap up tomorrow, near 50% of today's range, but then slide lower.

BUT, if prices plunge after 8:30 data (employment report), recovery is likely because the bears will have made BIG $$$ and why ruin a weekend with indecision, close out of bearish positions means buying.

don't do anything until you see the reacton to the employment report.

I have little/no desire to do a statistical study, but that might change when I get up at 2am tomorrow to trade the overnight.

I can tell you this, in terms of the ES, right now, with my perfunctory eyeballing of the days when the TRIN closed above 2.26, odds are favoring that close (tomorrow) will be lower than tomorrow's RTH open, but intraday range high should hit a little above 50% of today's range...

50% of today's RTH range is 1251.50.
More...
 
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