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ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Quote from gwac:
I guess oil stocks are saving this market...
I'm seeing some real weakness here in all sectors yet we are holding up.
ES did bounce of the support at 74 which does also tag the multiple trend lines.
However, if we don't get some real buying come to lift us above 82 and stay there then expect us too at least test the LOD.
On a side-note crude is one hell of a market to trade when its trending. That was a huge move higher from the breakout on the report.
Quote from wave:
The short at 97 will likely trade down to 75.
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1275 , time to cover. You gotta know their intentions.
The short at 1297 failed for the little guy, but the big guys were just loading up @ 1297 and above, covered at 1297 and resumed operation down to 1275. Talk about organized crime.
This long should now trade back up to 1330.
nice call wave and ammo
i bought GS call option and i am down but willing to hold till tomorrow.
FWIW,
Pekelo has that gap observation. He has sort of made ammendments and other observations, but the original rule was:
if you have a gap that does not close and then on the very next trade day you open again with another gap in the same direction, when that happens, he expects that second gap to fill sometime during that second trading day.
I ran an historical study and found that (I can't remember the exact number) but it was like 71 or 72% of the time, call it 7 in 10, that the second gap would fill. Study was based on ES for the past 10 years, I did include some sort of filter that the gap had to be more than 3 ticks. the report is somewhere on ET, I published it in his journal.
Today was/is second consecutive gap day in same direction. yesterday's 4:15pm close was 1291.75, yesterday's 4:00pm close was 1290.75 (study was based on 4:15pm closes, but LC does have a valid point about also looking at the 4:00pm close.
ammo has noted before that on days when the oil prices are up, just the close of the pit trading can coincide with some relief (higher) in ES (maybe because traders feel a sense of relief that there can't be anymore bad news from the oil pits because they're closed.
pit trading in oil ends at 2:30pm (I believe).
Pekelo has that gap observation. He has sort of made ammendments and other observations, but the original rule was:
if you have a gap that does not close and then on the very next trade day you open again with another gap in the same direction, when that happens, he expects that second gap to fill sometime during that second trading day.
I ran an historical study and found that (I can't remember the exact number) but it was like 71 or 72% of the time, call it 7 in 10, that the second gap would fill. Study was based on ES for the past 10 years, I did include some sort of filter that the gap had to be more than 3 ticks. the report is somewhere on ET, I published it in his journal.
Today was/is second consecutive gap day in same direction. yesterday's 4:15pm close was 1291.75, yesterday's 4:00pm close was 1290.75 (study was based on 4:15pm closes, but LC does have a valid point about also looking at the 4:00pm close.
ammo has noted before that on days when the oil prices are up, just the close of the pit trading can coincide with some relief (higher) in ES (maybe because traders feel a sense of relief that there can't be anymore bad news from the oil pits because they're closed.
pit trading in oil ends at 2:30pm (I believe).
Quote from vertigo3:
FWIW,
Pekelo has that gap observation. He has sort of made ammendments and other observations, but the original rule was:
if you have a gap that does not close and then on the very next trade day you open again with another gap in the same direction, when that happens, he expects that second gap to fill sometime during that second trading day.
I ran an historical study and found that (I can't remember the exact number) but it was like 71 or 72% of the time, call it 7 in 10, that the second gap would fill. Study was based on ES for the past 10 years, I did include some sort of filter that the gap had to be more than 3 ticks. the report is somewhere on ET, I published it in his journal.
Today was/is second consecutive gap day in same direction. yesterday's 4:15pm close was 1291.75, yesterday's 4:00pm close was 1290.75 (study was based on 4:15pm closes, but LC does have a valid point about also looking at the 4:00pm close.
ammo has noted before that on days when the oil prices are up, just the close of the pit trading can coincide with some relief (higher) in ES (maybe because traders feel a sense of relief that there can't be anymore bad news from the oil pits because they're closed.
pit trading in oil ends at 2:30pm (I believe).
just to add I think that 1290 is too important of a number not to fill may not happen today though.
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