ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Lawrence Chan]

It is storm season here in NA, and it is disaster season in Asian.

Either case can cause a lot of uncertainty and create shocks into all markets.

Edit: overnight positions are way more risky than perceived.
Just like today - holding long from overnight wipes out a lot of profit before recovering.

 

[jagmot]

Quote from riskymove:

I believe that statement you have quoted me on is pretty benign and thus don't understand why you seem to be semi- flaming me for it. But seeing as how you started a Rule of Ten journal, I know where you stand on the rule and obviously also my thoughts against it.

If you look through my past posts you will find I comment on what I see/think market will do as well from time to time and yes hopefully that is helpful to some, but how do I have any idea if it is or is not?

But I am not speculating on others. I have no problem congratulating someone on a good trade, whether or not I could be in a discussion with them and be taking the other side of it. I said last night I would try to post some trades since I have been writing in this journal a bit as of late. However I commuincate in a room with several other individuals on trading the ES everyday and posting there and here gets a bit in the way of making money (or at least trying to).

I will check out the journal you started. I never said you can't make money with the ROT. The only thing I have indicated was that it always seems the parameters were adjusted in hindsight to make the trade work. If they can be set with some regularity and objectives that will a) set a stop and b) give some idea of the r/r scenario then I hope to learn it and keep it in the arsenal to keep in mind when trading.

Risky, In no way was I trying to semi-flame you. I reread your previous post and again it does not say why you are posting while you speculate on others. It was just a simple question and then I posted my reason.

Edit: You do however say it in this post.

It is funny however that you say look at your past posts. I know V has a lot of posts (5000+ at this time) but perhaps someone should look back at V's post before concluding that r10 does not work. Again, not a flame but just pointing out something that seems obvious to me.

ps. I am not even a proponent of r10

 

[jagmot]

Quote from Pekelo:

I made some observations in it this morning, hope it helps...

One thing to clarify is that the target is not 10 points. There is no clear exit point, the Ro10 is an entry signal and the exit is discriminatory.

Otherwise good luck...Try to play it overnight (let's suppose it is automatized) because it works quite well with the narrower night range....

Hope I cleared that up in the r10 journal.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Long 10 contracts @ 1278.50


Initial stop 1266.50

Buy stop @ 1284.25 cancelled

 

[W4rl0ck]

If a gap is half filled is it still considered "open" - a target for later?

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from PACMAN1:

I have learned a lot from your comments but are you a daytrader or a swing trader.

Both. In August I will not be intraday trading all that much (taking a much needed break after a successful June and July--I feel like a crab fisherman after working a month non-stop). The 1270 would be a swing trade, looking for 50 points. However, if 1270 proves to be a bad entry, then it will end up being a daytrade.

Swing trades are put on with much less size than daytrades. 5-10 contracts for intraday trades; 2-3 for swing trades, based on a 210K account.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

08-07-08 10:53 AM

Long 10 contracts @ 1278.50


Initial stop 1266.50

I'll be away the rest of the day. Placing a limit order here @ 1290.50. Today's trade will be a 1:1 R/R

 

[riskymove]

Quote from jagmot:

Risky, In no way was I trying to semi-flame you. I reread your previous post and again it does not say why you are posting while you speculate on others. It was just a simple question and then I posted my reason.

Edit: You do however say it in this post.

It is funny however that you say look at your past posts. I know V has a lot of posts (5000+ at this time) but perhaps someone should look back at V's post before concluding that r10 does not work. Again, not a flame but just pointing out something that seems obvious to me.

ps. I am not even a proponent of r10

I give up. If you can get the ROT to work for you trading then great. I however think it is too vague to work. Maybe it can for an individual but I think OldTrader said it best in the new ROT journal when he said the market is always changing and that's why it's hard to use the ROT. It can help with levels and reverals - like today it has been useful as a guide. But my primary argument has been that it's very difficult to trade day in/out on it because the rules have to be constantly adjusted. For someone like volente who has been trading for a while, he can combine that with his experience and have a feel for how he should use the trade. But for someone just picking up off the bat, I think it would be very difficult. And I don't have time to go back and read his thousands of posts, nor do I care to research the ROT.

I ahve been a trader for 5 years now, just over 1 independently and over the past year of spending a lot of time on this site I have seen the ROT mentioned a ton - but almost always it is either mentioned after the fact or without risk parameters. I think expeirenced traders could use it as something to be aware of when trading, but only becasue they have built up a feel for the markets, the moves, etc and can thus decide when they want to take action on it or not. For someone trying to start trading I believe it will be difficult, because you have no feel. Unless you just set hard and fast rules to trade by - but then you get into a circular argument that the market is always changing - just like OldTrader said.

Anyway I have obviously taken up too much time on this journal talking about the ROT. I know some of you guys use it and I suppose the ones that do have learned how to employ it for profit - so kudos to you for that. I just stick to what I know and what works for me.

Peace out

 

[Renah]

Quote from smilingsynic:


Swing trades are put on with much less size than daytrades. 5-10 contracts for intraday trades; 2-3 for swing trades, based on a 210K account.

Why only 2-3 for swingtrades with such an account? Don't you think it is a waste of time?

I mean, isn't it too much work for so little?

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from Renah:

Why only 2-3 for swingtrades with such an account? Don't you think it is a waste of time?

I mean, isn't it too much work for so little?

It is not little, at least in terms of profit factor (total gains/total losses) and volatility of profits/drawdown. I started with 100 shares of BBY in the mid-1990's, when the stock was trading around 16, and I frequently take out profits for expenses (my wife can stay at home caring for my disabled son).

Most futures traders fail. And by most I mean all but a few. They do so for many reasons, but often it is because of overtrading and overleveraging their accounts. My conservative use of margin has ensured my survival, and my trading career has been based on the principle that the longer you survive, the more you can take advantage of weaker, newer players, who have yet to make the same mistakes that I have made.


Good luck to you.