ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Lawrence Chan]

People will have to understand what Paulson meant by "covered bond" before decisions can be made to long/short this market ...

 

[pulsescan]

wow. i was wrong about this one. just got stopped out of my nq longs. this is my 1st losing day in over a month.

 

[Jayford]

Quote from tortoise:

here we go...

having said that, i see nothing to make me want to go long....yet

yep, that was the Fib retrace. i agree with tortoise though. i don't see anything long here. A bit oversold, but nothing screaming at me. depends on tomorrow's open now for me.

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from smilingsynic:

thanks for the premature congrats--I'll try to get to this later, when I have more time. Who knows--I might end up wrong on this.

SHort answer: longer-term positions need time and space to move. 1320 by Labor day, I said. That is six weeks away.

If ES hits 1220, I would look to exit at next rally. Close stops are not for longer-term positions.

Longerterm positions are put on in smaller size than intraday because they entail greater risk.

OK, I have a few minutes to talk about the long term position I put on this afternoon (avg of 41).

At this point, it all depends on the strength of tomorrow's bounce. When the market closes at the bottom of the daily range (bottom ten percent), the market the next day tends to retrace 1/2 the previous day. Sometimes, though, the next day will retrace the whole thing.

If the market looks tentative and weak around the daily pivot, I'll get out with a small loss/gain and wait for lower prices.

Longer term, I do best when I buy weakness and sell strength. Intraday, I do best buy strength and sell weakness.

Please remember, this is for longer-term positions only. Intraday trades need to be exited before the close. It is a bad habit to let a short-ter,m trade turn into a longer-term trade (as I learned back in the mid 90's with that dog BOST).

 

[Xuanxue]

I wanted nothing more than to buy the pullback too, but, man, sellers won every battle on the way down that they lost on the way up. There's nothing left to beat but the bottom. Yeah we'll retrace tomorrow, and I'll be in on it, but not GTC. Believe that. It's all resistance.

 

[ammo]

the down volume line on a chart never waivered,just went straight up all day,i say we see continuation tommorrow

 

[pulsescan]

yup, i fought the trend and lost.
will have to sort this thing out and hopefully have a better day tommorow.

 

[ganesh6]

Bear Market Rally Will Take S&P to 1350

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25885403

 

[ammo]

paulsen got 4 banks to back the mortgage deal,that means he couldn't sucker any more foriegn money into going for another mortgage ride,so who's backing these banks,yours truly,so what will happen to the global economy if our dollar falls out of bed ,they are waiting thinking time will heal this like its always done in the past,except in the past we were never this broke,the only money the U.S. has left is the social security coffers,good time to start raiding them,before the massive amount of baby boomers retire and try to collect

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from Pekelo:

B1S2, the reason why I asked was because I didn't see anything bullish. My last prediction proved to be wrong, and after seeing Friday's action, it was just consolidation before further down.

So this morning you quickly gave back 16.5 points of your previous 25 pts win....

Certainly correct. The whole idea for me was to take the gains from the short trade at 10 contracts and then make a 20 contract long with a smaller stop. When that failed, I tried one more time at 5 contracts and then called it off when stopped out. Had my 20 contract been successful, it would have been nice, but it didn't work out. Still had a gain, so I will start again with 10 contracts on the next one.