ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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Quote from JSSPMK:
... Shell last night, his firm opinion is that there is absolutely no problem with supply & that at current demand levels there is enough for at least 150 years of what's known already, excluding new fields being found.
Please don't get me started on peak oil, because once I start I can't stop!
rather than demand driven,
He should realize that demand (well, usage) can not be more than supply. Supply has been pretty much the same since 2005 May even with prices quadruplying...What does that tell you about extra supply?
adding that OPEC is not that interested in extremely high prices
At this point it is out of the hand of OPEC and seriously, why would they sell more barrels for less money??
P.S.: I apologize for the offtopic interruption, but it is my pet thingy and I don't get how hard it is to see simple facts.
QUOTE]Quote from JSSPMK:
I got a word that Fannie Mae Freddie Mac will be going into liquidation tomorrow? [/QUOTE]
To the contrary, futures are up 12 points...
... Shell last night, his firm opinion is that there is absolutely no problem with supply & that at current demand levels there is enough for at least 150 years of what's known already, excluding new fields being found.
Please don't get me started on peak oil, because once I start I can't stop!
rather than demand driven,
He should realize that demand (well, usage) can not be more than supply. Supply has been pretty much the same since 2005 May even with prices quadruplying...What does that tell you about extra supply?
adding that OPEC is not that interested in extremely high prices
At this point it is out of the hand of OPEC and seriously, why would they sell more barrels for less money??
P.S.: I apologize for the offtopic interruption, but it is my pet thingy and I don't get how hard it is to see simple facts.
QUOTE]Quote from JSSPMK:
I got a word that Fannie Mae Freddie Mac will be going into liquidation tomorrow? [/QUOTE]
To the contrary, futures are up 12 points...
it is not my view, it is news related:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKreTa_YgY9I&refer=home
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKreTa_YgY9I&refer=home
Oh that! Well, world oil production is peaking/plateauing right now, so usage (demand) has a limit. Now worldwide demand has been expected to grow without production limit. So we have an increasing demand with limited supply, thus priceincrease. As the price keep rising this destroys the extra demand, thus the equilibrium resumes.
It is not speculation but simply fundamentals, the market finally recognizing that oil is a limited resource and there are no real substitutes aviable. The best we can hope is a nice long plateau before the inevitable decline in production...
Now price can fluctuate according to everyday news and lots of other factors, but in the long run, there is only one direction to go, up....
Shell saying that we are good to go another 150 years is simply a lie....
It is not speculation but simply fundamentals, the market finally recognizing that oil is a limited resource and there are no real substitutes aviable. The best we can hope is a nice long plateau before the inevitable decline in production...
Now price can fluctuate according to everyday news and lots of other factors, but in the long run, there is only one direction to go, up....
Shell saying that we are good to go another 150 years is simply a lie....
It's not Shell Co. who said that, that is the difference. How do you establish demand/supply? Based on what? Do you have access to some sort of stats? I thought that there is a lack of refineries at the moment, but to assume words of a man who has worked in oil extraction sector for over 20 years as a lie could be an error on your part, unless you have somehow managed to establish your opinion on some sort of fundamental basis. His opinion on valuation was rather vague as he doesn't specialise in fundamental analysis, but thought that it would go to about $100 as new low. Oil is not gold, it's a commodity that we actually do need on daily basis, so there is such thing as being able to afford & not being able to afford. I tend to think that as soon as oil goes into 'won't be able to afford' territory, then prices will somehow be 'forced' down. Try to consider a possibility that there is enough found oil for the next 150 years, again, unless you have hard data that this is of course a lie. TY!
I would rather believe a slightly drunk oil expert, then a media article that could easily have some interest/s in withholding truth. In fact if you subscribe to thinking that media controls public opinions, then you would treat all media with a pinch of salt (always a media skeptic)
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