ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from pulsescan:

thanks,



I will look to re-enter the market on Sunday night.
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hopefully not net long.

Vix should hit high 30's given the climate.. if market makers unload, (they are the one stabilizing price), the market could be locked limit down for a couple days to generate huge sell side liquidity. So the MM's can cover.

breaking multi year support creates technical selling where the bids are pulled until the next technical level.

again to reiterate, the climate( time) is what kills price, given enough time/climate price can continue to trend down, to sub 1000. Also we haven't seen the worst in jobs numbers yet, where NFP numbers come in -200 to -300K. Equity models that track job growth work wonderfully.
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

hopefully not net long.

Vix should hit high 30's given the climate.. if market makers unload, (they are the one stabilizing price), the market could be locked limit down for a couple days to generate huge sell side liquidity. So the MM's can cover.

breaking multi year support creates technical selling where the bids are pulled until the next technical level.
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Heres the problem with that.

Your correct with the technical levels I'm not so sure as to the timing of the bounce. I believe that the correction is coming but not just yet. We could get a small bounce on Monday but I don't see that bounce signaling a significant long signal.

Make no mistake the market is Bearish. I'm ONLY taking sell signals from my system at this time. The system is not long anything but crude oil and I have not been able to execute this week due to the personal circumstances at home. I can only trade what i designed and that's whatever the system gives me.

to be quite frank i'm really waiting for the nq to go bearish. once the nq trades belolw its support i will be all over it. we still have just under 200 pionts to the downside to go yet. once we get into the 1668.50 level then its game over for the bulls. they will try to prop up this market until then. if the gov't bails out freddie and fannie then we may see a return back up to 12,646 on the dow. until then it's lights out for the bulls.

:cool:
 
Quote from pulsescan:

too bad i had to get out too early. my daughter got attacked by a stray pitbull and i have been back and forth to the hospital.
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Sorry to here that. Was attacked by two dogs when I was 8-9 riding my bike. Bastard live couple doors down. Seemed to want to attack anyone they could get to if there wasn't a fence. Still watch every dog I come upon out of the corner of my eye. Don't trust them or the OWNERS.
 
I wrote this about a year ago under the thread "How not to blow up trading stock index futures":

"Don't trade countertrend on a trend day.

No $hit, sherlock. How does one know it is going to be a trend day?

Consider the following as generalizations based on my own experience. And if it helps you avoid losing half your nut (or more) on a day like this (Friday, October 19, S&P down 2 1/2%and falling), then good:

1. Strongly trending markets tend to move in tight channels, and there is little movement away from the trend, and little movement back to the open. The stronger the trend, the smaller the pullback.

2. When the market gaps down, and then trades up to a point that there is a swing high below the gap, there is generally at least another strong move down for the day. Gap (or strong move) plus mid-day consolidation equals late afternoon continuation.

Likewise, when the market gaps up, and then trades down to a point that there is a swing low above the gap, there generally is at least another strong move up for the day

In other words, there is usually a chance to get out a mid-day. If you have been fading all morning, you might want to take advantage.

3. On a trend day, the trend tends to become stronger as the trading day becomes longer. Therefore, on a trend day, the stubborn countertrend trader risks suffering significant losses.

4. If the market consolidates at support and does not bounce off, that support will probably not hold. The longer the market consolidates at support, the more likely it will successfully be breached. Likewise, if the market consolidates at resistance and does not back off, that resistance will probably not hold. The longer the market consolidates at resistance, the more likely it will successfully be breached.

5. If the market breezes through S2 or R2 levels early in the day, as if they didn't exist, they probably didn't.

Good luck to all (unless you are on the other side of my trade)."

Based on the above 5 criteria, I would surmise that today is a trend day.

1. Large gap down that has not filled. Attempt to hit pivot has failed.
2. S2 is NOT way up there, but the market is not bouncing off, like it should, if the market is going to rally.
3. Lunchtime rally = tight channel, so far. Strong trend + consolidation = probably continuation.

I would/am consider long term buys only, not intraday buys. Good luck to all.
 
Keep 1226 in your head. Bulls started feeding here. They will keep buying on the way down and sure enough it will go back to 1226.
 
excellent post on trend day! one to save. however #5, S/R is quite important and there could be many S/R's working on bigger timeframes.

Today I would expect a reversal coming up right around now.

Paring down shorts and possible long between the 1200/1220 levels.
 
Quote from satchel:

excellent post on trend day! one to save. however #5, S/R is quite important and there could be many S/R's working on bigger timeframes.

Today I would expect a reversal coming up right around now.

Paring down shorts and possible long between the 1200/1220 levels.
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An intraday reversal that would fill the gap would go against tradition, but we are oversold. Long term buys done now, as Wave suggested, are likely going to be good trades. That is what gtc limit orders are for.

Intraday longs, however, are low prob, imo. There is a support zone at 28-29; if that fails, down we go.
 
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