ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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1256 is a very important number.... i think a small long with a stop and reverse short below 1256 (only after vibration) will be a good risk/reward trade
 
Quote from PaulRon:

1256 is a very important number.... i think a small long with a stop and reverse short below 1256 (only after vibration) will be a good risk/reward trade
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what is vibration?
 
Thursday and Friday caught me off-guard. There were bullish divergences and solid support zones blown through all over the place and the ones that did hold, I didn't take profits fast enough since I thought they were going to be "the one!". After the morning session, I threw in the towel on trying to pick the bottom... of course this is when the market decided to reverse. I wasn't in the right mindset to trade at that point so I just shut it down early. After trying to forget about it all over the weekend I'm coming back now with a fresh mind. Heres what I'm thinking-


I think a short-term bottom was put in on Friday based on the structure of the moves down, urgency of the moves up, and funky H&S on the S&P (at least thats what they're trying for IMO). I have a hard time believing I was the only technical trader caught with a long bias towards the end of the week... If I were a position trader that actually took trades with a stop of more than a few points I surely would have puked all my longs Friday morning. Now we'll have the juice to move up for a couple days. The move up could provide a nice opportunity to get short for new lows to be made IMO.

First target area is 1899-1903 on NQ which is highly probable IMO, then 1920-1930 which has some very good confluence. ES resistance isn't as obvious and since I don't trade it I'm not going to bother, but somewhere in the low 1300's.

Until these zones are reached, longs are the easy money.... after they are, we could make a nice trip down to take out the lows (and hell, maybe I'll make some long-term investments when we get there).
 

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Quote from tommymoose:

Thursday and Friday caught me off-guard. There were bullish divergences and solid support zones blown through all over the place and the ones that did hold, I didn't take profits fast enough since I thought they were going to be "the one!". After the morning session, I threw in the towel on trying to pick the bottom... of course this is when the market decided to reverse. I wasn't in the right mindset to trade at that point so I just shut it down early. After trying to forget about it all over the weekend I'm coming back now with a fresh mind. Heres what I'm thinking-


I think a short-term bottom was put in on Friday based on the structure of the moves down, urgency of the moves up, and funky H&S on the S&P (at least thats what they're trying for IMO). I have a hard time believing I was the only technical trader caught with a long bias towards the end of the week... If I were a position trader that actually took trades with a stop of more than a few points I surely would have puked all my longs Friday morning. Now we'll have the juice to move up for a couple days. The move up could provide a nice opportunity to get short for new lows to be made IMO.

First target area is 1899-1903 on NQ which is highly probable IMO, then 1920-1930 which has some very good confluence. ES resistance isn't as obvious and since I don't trade it I'm not going to bother, but somewhere in the low 1300's.

Until these zones are reached, longs are the easy money.... after they are, we could make a nice trip down to take out the lows (and hell, maybe I'll make some long-term investments when we get there).
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I'd love to see 1271 before 1295 and perhaps even 1320 prints this week on the ES. This is a holiday week and a end of the month markup week. This is also a bullish bias the first few trading days of the month.

IOW, there will at least be an effort before the long weekend.
 
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