ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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I posted on the 24th near the open about swing long positions, that is now off the table - (not that anyone is keeping track of my Internet chicken scratches :) - prior to that was 60-70 level short the week before)

There should be an ES Journal for multi-day trades...

It's only off the table because: conflicting now
 
Quote from satchel:


There should be an ES Journal for multi-day trades...
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Many people do multi day trades (including myself)...yesterday was a multi day trade, unfortunately I lifted my stop too tight and got stopped out (at least at a small profit) towards the end of the day.
 
Quote from vertigo3:

smilingsynic,
I was wondering if you could explain a little more about your use of the 1-2-3.
Technically, Trader Vic's 1-2-3 is a reversal pattern, I am wondering whether you were referring to what is often called a simple 1-2-3 pattern, but is also known as an A-B-C for measured moves?

for Trader Vic's 1-2-3 I'll try to describe a reversal to lower prices.
Price in uptrend
1) price loses momentum and breaks below uptrend line
2) price attempts to start moving higher again but cannot exceed previous swing high (and usually remains on the underside of the ascending trendline.
3) price starts to decline
4) sell short at swing low established after the broken trendline.

are you saying that if the formation takes place at (let's say R2) that the break lower should go to R1,
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In general, I use 1233s as a CONTINUATION pattern intraday, and not as a reversal (I discussed these here sometime last summer).

I know Kevin Haggerty of tradingmarkets suggests using 123's to spot reversals after price hits certain volatility bands. Bruce Gould and Ken Roberts talked about 123s long before Trader Vic did in his books. They're nothing new.

The only time I would use 123s to find reversals on trend days would be if the 123 occurred right on one of the daily pivot levels or some key support/resistance level.

For instance, on a strong down day, I would use 123s only if price hit below, let's say, S2, rose to S2, and then made a 123 there.
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

Considering tomorrow's Fed meeting, any educated guesses on the highest the ES will go?

1334-1338 is my guess.
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Close (less than 4 points off), but no cigar.

No problem--I don't smoke! :)
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

What is your uncle point?
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5 points. I am having some doubt, maybe we have a pop and then sell off. If I don't respond just assume I am short. If I change my mind before the announcement, I will post.

The statement that follows the decision I am sure, inflation still remains and needs to me monitored blah blah blah, that is where this sell off will happen.

If we get that type of statement and there is a rally I am sure tomorrow will be a nice sell off. 250 or more points. Just my opinion.
 
I am selling the spike up as soon as there's weakness. If I had to guess (for fun), it will sell off today as the Fed will probably mention rate hikes before the end of this year.
 
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