ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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smilingsynic,
I was wondering if you could explain a little more about your use of the 1-2-3.
Technically, Trader Vic's 1-2-3 is a reversal pattern, I am wondering whether you were referring to what is often called a simple 1-2-3 pattern, but is also known as an A-B-C for measured moves?

for Trader Vic's 1-2-3 I'll try to describe a reversal to lower prices.
Price in uptrend
1) price loses momentum and breaks below uptrend line
2) price attempts to start moving higher again but cannot exceed previous swing high (and usually remains on the underside of the ascending trendline.
3) price starts to decline
4) sell short at swing low established after the broken trendline.

are you saying that if the formation takes place at (let's say R2) that the break lower should go to R1,
 
Thanks for the tradestation warnings

I have two different futures accounts and I really only use TS for viewing charts while I have a different system on another computer with a different brokerage for trading.

I know what you're talking about, When I only had Trade Station, I would simply NOT trade the fomc announcement.

I assume everyone's familiar with the price pattern that often accompanies announcemnts:
Knee jerk in one direction, loses momentum, reverses, goes for a while, loses mmomentum and then starts back in the direction of the initial knee jerk.

I refrain from making predictions about what price will do in reaction to the FOMC announcement, but honestly, I don't understand what words the Fed could use that would cause the markets to go up.

I do know this, it doesn't matter what they say, only price action matters. It is a curiosity to me though.

day after FOMC announcemnt: often unwinds what Px did in the last hour of trading after announcement. go figure.
 
they could say that they are closing the loophole immediately on the banks being used as brokerage houses to exceed position limits in commodities,they run the banks,oil andd gold and grains would drop and money would come into bonds and equities,flight to safety, i don't see it happening but if this were the case and someone leaked it ,it would explain oil and petro stocks being off at the opening
 
FWIW a subscriber newsletter I get did several backtests regarding going into a FED day while in the current circumstances (near 20-day low, breadth, volume, etc) and there is a quantifiable edge to the upside the day of the meeting and the day or two after as well. Couple that with the technicals indicating upside and its a good bet we're going higher IMO
 
Quote from tommymoose:

Couple that with the technicals indicating upside and its a good bet we're going higher IMO
More...

Here is my personal observation of FOMC:

The day before FOMC is usually a Doji, and both yesterday and Monday were dojis. There isn't much movement until 2 pm on the day itself, and averaging in usually pays off.

IF there is a trend before the announcement, that is usually continued after the usual 5-10 pts up and down in both directions. Since we have an uptrend right now, I expect us to close higher...
 
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