ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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1.) Price action dicatated by supply and demand...
2.) Supply and demand dictated by support and resistance... breaking
3.) Breaking support and resistance intimates intent...
4.) There is 'gross' intent and 'micro' intent..
5.) Gross intent are the larger timeframe trends
6.) Micro intent are the intraday timeframes that trade similar to the larger timeframes in terms of intraday support and resistance breaking..
7.) The smallest intent fractal is the tick vectors of the bid/ask...
8.) If you look at the 60 minute price structure you see multiple 'fakeouts' as price attempts to test intraday support and resistance..
9.) Setups originate with the failure or rebuttal at support and resistance.
10.) Larger parties in the marketplace can dictate movement in a herd like manner, moving prices in premarket or aftermarket to break key levels on the backdrop of news events..or upcoming news events...
11.) Best entries are at outliers in the dispersion waves as S/R's are probed..
12.) Price action is a extrapolation of the success and failures of support and resistance at the second to second bid/ask vectors...........
 
Thanks for the comments guys! I didn't realize more than a few people paid attention to my calls. I always like to hear your analysis' too. Thanks alot JSSPMK especially for showing me how powerful the MACD histo divergence is :)

However, sorry if I gave you all the impression I'm leaving for good! ... I'll absolutely be posting nightly analysis and charts if anything jumps out at me. I'll probably be swing trading with the ultra-ETF's (maybe the e-mini's if I can get away with a reasonably small stop) but this is going to require an almost entirely different skill-set then what most of my day-trades are.

Anyway, I still got a couple more days left to trade... heres what I'm thinking and I'll see you tomorrow-

Downside is looking exhausted. The bears managed to regain control today but I doubt they'll be able to do that tomorrow if there is another rally. Higher timeframe charts (360, 240, 120, 60) are all still bullish so I'll be playing the larger direction as up... going long on good setups as long as they're above 1301 ES. First S zone 1310 ES for the typical 78.6% entry... if that fails I'll play it by ear.
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

1.) Price action dicatated by supply and demand...
2.) Supply and demand dictated by support and resistance... breaking
3.) Breaking support and resistance intimates intent...
4.) There is 'gross' intent and 'micro' intent..
5.) Gross intent are the larger timeframe trends
6.) Micro intent are the intraday timeframes that trade similar to the larger timeframes in terms of intraday support and resistance breaking..
7.) The smallest intent fractal is the tick vectors of the bid/ask...
8.) If you look at the 60 minute price structure you see multiple 'fakeouts' as price attempts to test intraday support and resistance..
9.) Setups originate with the failure or rebuttal at support and resistance.
10.) Larger parties in the marketplace can dictate movement in a herd like manner, moving prices in premarket or aftermarket to break key levels on the backdrop of news events..or upcoming news events...
11.) Best entries are at outliers in the dispersion waves as S/R's are probed..
12.) Price action is a extrapolation of the success and failures of support and resistance at the second to second bid/ask vectors...........
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Spectre2007,

very interesting summary.

Would you please explain more about point 11)? I don't know what the dispersion waves mean here?

Thanks.

swing-scalper
 
Quote from tommymoose:

Thanks for the comments guys! I didn't realize more than a few people paid attention to my calls. I always like to hear your analysis' too. Thanks alot JSSPMK especially for showing me how powerful the MACD histo divergence is :)

However, sorry if I gave you all the impression I'm leaving for good! ... I'll absolutely be posting nightly analysis and charts if anything jumps out at me. I'll probably be swing trading with the ultra-ETF's (maybe the e-mini's if I can get away with a reasonably small stop) but this is going to require an almost entirely different skill-set then what most of my day-trades are.

Anyway, I still got a couple more days left to trade... heres what I'm thinking and I'll see you tomorrow-

Downside is looking exhausted. The bears managed to regain control today but I doubt they'll be able to do that tomorrow if there is another rally. Higher timeframe charts (360, 240, 120, 60) are all still bullish so I'll be playing the larger direction as up... going long on good setups as long as they're above 1301 ES. First S zone 1310 ES for the typical 78.6% entry... if that fails I'll play it by ear.
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Hey Tommy, I know it's a line chart & they don't carry enough info & just plain wrong in 21st century LOL, but lack of info sometimes is good to see things more clearly. Looking at histo channel's width & absense of defensive action (no sharp lows) doesn't indicate to me that downside is exhausted.


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Quote from swing-scalper:

Spectre2007,

very interesting summary.

Would you please explain more about point 11)? I don't know what the dispersion waves mean here?

Thanks.

swing-scalper
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dispersion waves - the price is 'channeled' with a overall directional trend. The waves are basically price movement within a confined channel. So the best entries for setups are usually on the borders of these channels or 'outliers'.
 
Last option expiration forced many market making firms to realign their positions. i.e. taking lock in losses

Their remaining positions going forward the next 3 months are likely all in a disadvantage position.

Only way out is to take the indices to a completely different price level in order to absorb new option orders to rebalance their positions again.

So, we may see 1300 and below pretty soon. :)

That being said I am not extremely bearish kind of guy thinking of a crash or anything like that ...

p.s. so we may get a clue for a better bottom from massive increase in open interest on the options when a new lower level is established
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

The real bounce from here I would think.

Then, a little later we will have some comments concerning what is known about the male individuals who buy on days that begin with the letter T.:)
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This would appear to have been the best call of the day yesterday on 2 fronts. (9:58 AM EST):)
 
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