ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[fearless9]

Quote from bighog:

Trading is a challenge, it is you against the others that are trying to pick your pocket. I see a price level and i think of who will be hurt and who will be glad to see that level hit. BUT, that in itself will not make we a winner. What will get me there will be when i am on the side that has more powder to force price past that level. Thats the side i want to be on. All the losers up to that price level have seen it before so they will not take action until that price is taken out. Once that price is taken ouit and the losers bail and new trades are entered to follow the new higher/lower prices .............my trade will be enhanced.

thats why i do not trade noise.

BH

Are you saying that when you enter a successful trade then the trader on the other side will get hurt.

regards
f9

 

[tommymoose]

Quote from tommymoose:

Long NQ 1966.50 stop 1965.25 target ~1971

off 1-min D and 50% retrace

Limit sitting at 1971.75... stop moved up to 67.75

... out 67.75

 

[ammo]

tommy ,there is support this afternoon at 1930 on 4 hr

 

[Buy1Sell2]

06-18-08 11:10 AM

06-18-08 10:38 AM

Stop raised on my ES Sep long to 1335.50
I am long 5 contracts from 1355.00

Sell Stop raised to 1336.50
Sell stop raised to 1337.75

 

[bighog]

f9, well a movement in price will hurt some yes. Thats why i say price moves within what i call 'noise ' is basically harmless because it does not draw attention. on a breakout the odds say there will be new followers as price seeks a new level and the losers that are forced out of their losing positions are helping the new orders get filled and push price along. Thats then when you see the price move slow you might want to yank the profits because for price to continue it needs more power. Whats the old saying: You must feed the bull or else look out below.falling prices fall from their own weight since stocks in general are supposed to be bought and not sold. A lack of buyers makes ES fall faster.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

12000 dow is a magnet

 

[iloveoptions]

Quote from Mins:

100% correct imo - but it matters not if you are right or wrong Buy1Sell2 is very stubborn with his view even though any back testing would show no statistical edge with random entry.

I wouldn't put much faith in backtesting. Never engaged in it and never will. Backtesting can NEVER tell you or predict even with approximation how ferocious the next trade will be (velocity, behaviour, stop out, etc.). Back testing can NEVER predict when and at what time BB will adjust rates. So, I'm in the same camp as b1s2 that forward testing(real trading) is more accurate than back testing. Always have and always will be. But then again, it's just my humble opinion.

 

[satchel]

Internals never went along, revisit morning lows.

Plan: continue short all moves into R-lines from this morning.

 

[Mins]

Quote from iloveoptions:

I wouldn't put much faith in back testing. Never engaged in it and never will. Back testing can NEVER tell you or predict even with approximation how ferocious the next trade will be (velocity, behaviour, stop out, etc.). Back testing can NEVER predict when and at what time BB will adjust rates. So, I'm in the same camp as b1s2 that forward testing(real trading) is more accurate than back testing. Always have and always will be. But then again, it's just my humble opinion.

You have your view on back-testing however i was simply stating that back-testing a random entry method which Buy1Sell2 mentioned will provide no statistical edge.

Back-testing a simple random entry system can be easily done with host of different money management methods. However, you can tinker with it all you like - you will never get a statistical edge using a random entry method unless your sample of trades is small.


I am not talking about back-testing in general as everyone has their own method to trade.

 

[bighog]

F9........... relate that post from satchel to what i posted. satchsaid the mornings highs are showing resist. Thats correct because price action is showing no new buying power. price is hitting a wall and price that can not go up will fall from own weight.