ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from bighog:

not to argue, but i stand by my statements. That was for ilove options there.
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I won't argue with you too. After all, you have the right to stand by any bogus statement you make any time you want. :D
 
it comes from inside the heads of all the positions in the mkts........fear and greed, fight or flight. The mkt itself is a myth. We trade against each other whenever money is involved.
 
Trading is a challenge, it is you against the others that are trying to pick your pocket. I see a price level and i think of who will be hurt and who will be glad to see that level hit. BUT, that in itself will not make we a winner. What will get me there will be when i am on the side that has more powder to force price past that level. Thats the side i want to be on. All the losers up to that price level have seen it before so they will not take action until that price is taken out. Once that price is taken ouit and the losers bail and new trades are entered to follow the new higher/lower prices .............my trade will be enhanced.

thats why i do not trade noise.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Actually, money management can turn a losing system into a winning system without question. The casino example is a bit flawed because typically there is not the same ability to move your stop up and let a winner run. In the casino, you definitely need to have more winners than losers. That being said, there are games where you can have relatively small losses and big wins without a high winning percentage. Slots and Keno come to mind.
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Not in the LONG HAUL.

Short term, yes, there are individual winners. Keno has individual winners. Lotto has individual winners. Do state lotteries and casinos sweat when there are winners (assuming that said winners did not cheat)? No. They have the law of large numbers on their side.

A losing system also has INDIVIDUAL winners, but in the LONG HAUL, a losing system is a loser, regardless of money management. The law of large numbers dictates such.

A losing system will not have sufficient numbers of large winners to overcome large numbers of losers. That is what makes it a losing system.
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

Not in the LONG HAUL.

Short term, yes, there are individual winners. Keno has individual winners. Lotto has individual winners. Do state lotteries and casinos sweat when there are winners (assuming that said winners did not cheat)? No. They have the law of large numbers on their side.

A losing system also has INDIVIDUAL winners, but in the LONG HAUL, a losing system is a loser, regardless of money management. The law of large numbers dictates such.

A losing system will not have sufficient numbers of large winners to overcome large numbers of losers. That is what makes it a losing system.
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A losing system is only a losing system if it fails to provide profit even with proper money management. A system that was a losing system with poor money management can be turned into a winning system with just that one item added to it.
 
There are no losers in LOTTO. the lotto player just took a chance on the utility of a dollar bill.

Is this dollar going to change my life if i lose it on a chance to win a couple hundred million dollars? The answer is no. Will this dollar bill change my life if i take a chance and win a couple hundred million? the answer is yes.


Lotto has no losers in the sense of the game.
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

Not in the LONG HAUL.

Short term, yes, there are individual winners. Keno has individual winners. Lotto has individual winners. Do state lotteries and casinos sweat when there are winners (assuming that said winners did not cheat)? No. They have the law of large numbers on their side.

A losing system also has INDIVIDUAL winners, but in the LONG HAUL, a losing system is a loser, regardless of money management. The law of large numbers dictates such.

A losing system will not have sufficient numbers of large winners to overcome large numbers of losers. That is what makes it a losing system.
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100% correct imo - but it matters not if you are right or wrong Buy1Sell2 is very stubborn with his view even though any back testing would show no statistical edge with random entry.
 
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