ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from tommymoose:

Short NQ 1985.50 stop 86.50... hoping this thing will cave into the close

stop just moved 85.25... ES just hit 50% major retrace so we could get a viscous bounce

worth a shot, out +0 after slippage

:edit: If they can hold this area until close, I think we'll see ES drift up during AH... this zone is too significant, they'll take advantage of it on low volume.
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my question could be silly, but please be kind - i'm just a beginner :-)
anybody's help is truly appreciated.

where/how do you see 50% retracement? meaning what do you use as high/low.

Also, why would you go long now and not a couple of days ago when we bounced off a resistance of 1330 level? hasn't that bounce happened already from the low of 1330 to the high of today... and then we sold off?

Anna.
 
Long @1351.50 stop @1348.00


Overnight hold here. Nice support on the 60 min at this level. Looking for this to hold and to possibly see a small short squeeze in the AM tomorrow.
 
Quote from hobber123:

Thanks Spectre for that insight, I find myself doing just what you said. Positon trading while waiting for the type of day I can make work intraday. Thought I was being too passive but choppy days shake me out of trades to often - this coming from you makes me feel maybe I'm onto something.:)
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yeah, one of the axioms, 'don't force a trade', just to trade.... and if you must trade, trade relatively small so that whatever mess you get yourself into, its not account breaking.

when those eye popping setups do appear, then you can reap the rewards to the fullest. Any market can be traded using the volatility principle.

1) currencies
2) bonds
3) equity indicies
4) individual stocks/(news event)
5) commodities

one of the reasons you see traders with mutliple screens is so that the markets can be tracked for the right conditions. (the screens aren't just for porn) :)
 
this one of my favorite pictures...

so much information can be gleaned from it..

1) crossovers
2) degree of retracement before price collapsed again
3) price outliers for ideal position trades
4) long term bias
 

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Quote from Anna K.:

my question could be silly, but please be kind - i'm just a beginner :-)
anybody's help is truly appreciated.

where/how do you see 50% retracement? meaning what do you use as high/low.

Also, why would you go long now and not a couple of days ago when we bounced off a resistance of 1330 level? hasn't that bounce happened already from the low of 1330 to the high of today... and then we sold off?

Anna.
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No worries. I'm sorry if the reasoning for some of my trades isn't clear in my posts. I trade all different timeframes with targets of anywhere from 2 points and up and in both direction no matter where I think the market is headed longer term. I'm going to limit myself to posting trades that have targets of at least 10 points from now on to get on a similar wavelength as everyone else who posts in the journal (even though these seem to make up less than 20% of my trades these days)

The 50% retrace on ES was from the 6/12 lows to this mornings highs and I have it shown at 1353.00. Come to think of it, I merged June and September ES data on my chart. The chart makes adjustments to the data (to make up for the premium on the front month) so that may throw off levels by a point or two. The 78.6% retrace from 6/13 low retrace was at 1353.75 as well so I considered that area a significant zone. If you're new, do yourself a favor and put 78.6% retraces on your charts. You'll find that you get a bounce at this level no matter what the timeframe.

I'm not sure if you're asking me about going long there since I did not. However that would have been a prime area to get long on ES with a small stop and big target (for more minor reasons I didn't). Yeah getting long at ~1330 would have been good, but you can still make money riding the final wave up as well.
 

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Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Long 5 @ 1355.00

Initial stop 1333.50

This will be an overnight trade.
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I don't understand reasoning behind this one at all. 60/120/240 do not look bullish, surely this is a longer term trade, but based on what? Seems like either a rushed trade or late to the party ImPO
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

this one of my favorite pictures...

so much information can be gleaned from it..

1) crossovers
2) degree of retracement before price collapsed again
3) price outliers for ideal position trades
4) long term bias
More...


if you compare the long term buy/sell signals from both charts, you will see that the moves in equities are preemptive for USD/JPY outlook, the usd/jpy laggs equities but once the signals are in, the trend in USD/JPY continues for a few years, similar to equities.

It implies much lower USD/JPY rates for the future.

edit: the levels equate its like selling, spooz above 1380-90 band on the MA's, the current MA band in usdjpy is 107.50-106.50...

so 108.20's = 1440 on spooz
 

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Spectre, what makes you think that the green channel is indeed a channel before it matured? Just because price is there at the moment doesn't really constitute a valid channel, only a vision of one based on previous support level. I am not certain yet, but I think we might be going lower tomorrow (looking at various hourly charts).
 
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