ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from OldTrader:

A combination of reasons. We're down around the 50 day average right now, and just above a swing low of about 1370 RTH back in April. I could see us running those stops, so this 1361 gives that some room if in fact we do that. Plus, this is the most I'm willing to lose on the trade.

On the other hand, IF we turn higher from down in here, I think we could catch a decent rally from down in here, perhaps next week. Seems like a decent risk/reward.

OldTrader

EDIT: I use these 15-20 point stops fairly frequently. It's what I'm comfortable with. So this is in that ballpark.
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It's an interesting trade. There certainly is support in this area and it's possible support will hold leading to a resumption of the current uptrend we have been in for a while.

However, it seems to me that putting a trade on is a bit premature at this stage. The reason being is we haven't yet seen how the price action reacts to this support level. For all we know it could totally reject it.

I find it interesting that you don't wait for a few days to see if there's a positive or negative reaction by price to the support level before entering a position. Is that your usual method to enter trades before there's any price confirmation of your idea?

Thanks in advance.
 
ammo,
thanks for those directions a page back.
"eye-opener" is an undestatement.
I had heard conjecture that this was the major reason for sky-rocketing prices in the face ample supply. That pdf explained it simply and succinctly.

unreal.
So that's why I can go to the store and choose from a shelf full of bunches of celery, paying 2X what it was a year and a half ago.

It all makes sense now. It explains perfectly how I can spend $51 for 13.4 gallons of gasoline, and yet, just be able to pull up to virtually any gas pump anywhere without have to sit in a line created by a supply defiiciency as opposed to the current demand (via commodities) forcing prices higher. The Saudi's have been saying that there is no supply problem right now, and now I understand the price move higher.

truly an eye-opened and worth reading. TY

now, do you think that the analysis was simple enough for congress to understand?

:eek:
 
i mentioned on another thread that it's posssible(ya think?) the boyz are all short before that announcement,they'll clean up, congress and the fed will get credit for saving the economy
 
Quote from ammo:

i mentioned on another thread that it's posssible(ya think?) the boyz are all short before that announcement,they'll clean up, congress and the fed will get credit for saving the economy
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That is perfect.
 
Quote from LondonUSTrader:

It's an interesting trade. There certainly is support in this area and it's possible support will hold leading to a resumption of the current uptrend we have been in for a while.

However, it seems to me that putting a trade on is a bit premature at this stage. The reason being is we haven't yet seen how the price action reacts to this support level. For all we know it could totally reject it.

I find it interesting that you don't wait for a few days to see if there's a positive or negative reaction by price to the support level before entering a position. Is that your usual method to enter trades before there's any price confirmation of your idea?

Thanks in advance.
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This is my usual method. If it doesn't work, I have a stop. I would say though that by the time there is "price confirmation", the price will be higher.

OldTrader
 
Quote from tommymoose:

IMO a retrace back towards highs is very likely.... its just a matter of from where. Its possible they base here and go, but this is what I'm really looking for on NQ -

1940-1950 on NQ... multiple price-relevant fibs, 100% APP, Major lower TL (not yet breached on NQ), and potential triple divergence on 15, 30, 60 (RTH... sorry JSS :p)
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Hope everyone had a nice extended weekend. I took a little trip and haven't looked at the charts from Thursday night until now. I'll my organize my thoughts here.

Things are playing out nicely and I'm expecting a move up during at least the first half of this week to setup for a nice place to get short for a couple weeks or more. I'm Looking for some potential short zones, but I gotta see what kind of retrace to Fridays lows we'll make to get some more confluence on the chart. All I know is that 1990 is pretty much a lock... gotta get some more data to chart off to try to figure out how much higher than that we could go.

Here is an updated chart of the nice triple D on the RTH chart that I was hoping for and the zone that held. :)

::BTW only comments on ES chart is that it wants to go to 1368-1370, then this market can bounce.
 

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Quote from tommymoose:

Hope everyone had a nice extended weekend. I took a little trip and haven't looked at the charts from Thursday night until now. I'll my organize my thoughts here.

Things are playing out nicely and I'm expecting a move up during at least the first half of this week to setup for a nice place to get short for a couple weeks or more. I'm Looking for some potential short zones, but I gotta see what kind of retrace to Fridays lows we'll make to get some more confluence on the chart. All I know is that 1990 is pretty much a lock... gotta get some more data to chart off to try to figure out how much higher than that we could go.

Here is an updated chart of the nice triple D on the RTH chart that I was hoping for and the zone that held. :)

::BTW only comments on ES chart is that it wants to go to 1368-1370, then this market can bounce.
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The market probably bounces from here and makes at least a 20 to 30 pt gain ... get ready for a short squeeze.
 
Quote from osorico:

So if I've followed this correctly, you had 4 on @1410.75 and you scaled in 2 more @1398.25 for a position of 6 long with an average basis of 1406.75.

A "unified"(??) stop @1377.75 triggered today for a loss of 29 ES points (116 ES ticks) per contract or -$1450 x 6 = -$8700

I tried to follow this multiday trade as well as I could. Did I miss anything?

Osorico
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The 1398.25 was quite a bit larger than the 1410.75 which was indeed 4 contracts. The 1398.25 was 10 contracts. I use one contract per unit for daytrade size which should always be smaller than swing and position size, 5 contracts per unit for swing size and 25 contracts per unit for position size. I always then adjust my position to keep it less than 2 percent loss of TLNW. Most times it's much less than 2 percent of TLNW.
 
Quote from OldTrader:

How about a swing trade just for fun. Long ES at 1374.75. Stop at 1361.00.

OldTrader
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Good entry. Thinking along similar lines, I think we had a little extra downside volatility due to the holiday.:)
 
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