ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[jagmot]

Quote from gwac:

callmate 4 hours is bearish I agree, buy daily is bullish still.

gwac, curious as to why you think the daily chart is still bullish?

I'm not asking in hindsight, as I was out of the office today starting around 1pm EST right before the waterfall down today. The only thing I saw was support at 1410 (previous resistance) that seemed to be holding.

I read this in the Market Wizard series (pushing the British Pound to the limit)

(Chart is PST, 15min)

First touch of 1410, bounce back to 1421.
Second touch of 1410, bounce back to 1419.
Third touch of 1410, bouce back to 1415.
Fourth touch can't make it back

You can see on the 5 min chart that a touch of 1408 can only push the market to 1411 before the final breakthru.

 

[opt789]

For position trades I like to watch the XLF (an ETF of financials) and it is of note that the discrepancy between the XLF and SPX has reached a new high. The attached weekly graph shows the difference of the SPX and the XLF on top and just the % graph of the two on the bottom.

As you can see the financials have fallen dramatically over the last few weeks while the SPX hasn't moved much. This doesn't tell you that the SPX is definitely going to fall, but it does show that it will have a hard time rallying significantly without the financials turning around.

The ES has obvious support at 1380 as B1S2 pointed out, but 1370 has a lot of support too and is the 38.2% retracement of the low of 1253 and our recent high of 1441. The trendline on the daily that people were talking about was clearly too steep to hold - we would have been at 1600 in two and half months if it did - but now that it is broken it doesn't really tell us much. Every overly steep trendline will be broken but that doesn't necessarily mean a trend change.

If I traded what I think, I would be overtly bearish, but until real selling comes into the ES we can't know if this current pullback means anything. I am also just hoping we go down, I don't know about you guys but I make a lot more money when VIX is above 20 and that isn't going to happen if we are just going to continue the bull market.

 

[jagmot]

Quote from jagmot:

gwac, curious as to why you think the daily chart is still bullish?

I'm not asking in hindsight, as I was out of the office today starting around 1pm EST right before the waterfall down today. The only thing I saw was support at 1410 (previous resistance) that seemed to be holding.

I read this in the Market Wizard series (pushing the British Pound to the limit)

(Chart is PST, 15min)

First touch of 1410, bounce back to 1421.
Second touch of 1410, bounce back to 1419.
Third touch of 1410, bouce back to 1415.
Fourth touch can't make it back

You can see on the 5 min chart that a touch of 1408 can only push the market to 1411 before the final breakthru.

 

[gwac]

Daily is no longer bullish....It was still in bullish territory when I posted.

I am not bearish or bullish at these levels. Neutral.


Really do not care since i rarely hold a position more than 30 minutes.


The Fed min at 2pm was to say the least ugly.

-We can no longer lower rates due to inflations
-We expect higher inflation
-we expect slower growth
-we expect higher unemployment

another words the US economy is ^&*^&*.

Quote from jagmot:

gwac, curious as to why you think the daily chart is still bullish?

I'm not asking in hindsight, as I was out of the office today starting around 1pm EST right before the waterfall down today. The only thing I saw was support at 1410 (previous resistance) that seemed to be holding.

I read this in the Market Wizard series (pushing the British Pound to the limit)

(Chart is PST, 15min)

First touch of 1410, bounce back to 1421.
Second touch of 1410, bounce back to 1419.
Third touch of 1410, bouce back to 1415.
Fourth touch can't make it back

You can see on the 5 min chart that a touch of 1408 can only push the market to 1411 before the final breakthru.

 

[millionaire7]

hi, Any update on your option trades today.

Quote from iloveoptions:

Sold one more 1410 call early this morning for 19 from (15.43), which leaves me with 8 calls and 1 put coming into the RTH session.

 

[iloveoptions]

Quote from millionaire7:

hi, Any update on your option trades today.

Thanks for asking. I've opened new positions in the 1390 calls when we slipped below 1400, and sold out of my last Put. I'll be holding my call positions till expiry (next week) or 1420, which ever comes first. The model tells me that tomorrow should be an up day which would be nice since I'm holding quite a few calls now.

 

[ammo]

this post could be total b.s., it is total b.s., but what if we need to keep the mrkt up for the economies sake,or it's not that bad, or it's fixable and it's blown out of proportion,or it's not good and we need to keep it up , buy some time, while thing 's correct themselves,.....or it is that bad, we will all lose our homes and jobs,america will become a wasteland and the world will starve and fall apart,wars and famine and disease will end life as we know it, guy's with multiple alias's and nothing else to do will lose their trust funds, live in cardboard boxes and have no one to annoy. The latter is what the fed served up for lunch,why in their right mind would they do such a thing .....is it total b.s. ?

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from ammo:

this post could be total b.s., it is total b.s., but what if we need to keep the mrkt up for the economies sake,or it's not that bad, or it's fixable and it's blown out of proportion,or it's not good and we need to keep it up , buy some time, while thing 's correct themselves,.....or it is that bad, we will all lose our homes and jobs,america will become a wasteland and the world will starve and fall apart,wars and famine and disease will end life as we know it, guy's with multiple alias's and nothing else to do will lose their trust funds, live in cardboard boxes and have no one to annoy. The latter is what the fed served up for lunch,why in their right mind would they do such a thing .....is it total b.s. ?

I think the fed is sending the message no more free lunches, unless some french guy needs to unload a few billion in a quiet market. The question (a hard one) is when to intervene or not. I was not around for the first crash 87' but talked to some people involved, systemic risk is a very real problem for any market. Your post is relecting some of the average thoughts and worries we all have. I guess I would say count your blessings.

 

[tommymoose]

I just wanted to post up a couple zones I'm making a note of. Likely retrace target for this move down is 1367-1377 IMO (1369-1372 specifically). There are a couple key fibs and wave projections here as well as the 50 and 100 day MA on the SPX. I'd expect at least a decent bounce from this level from the bulls as long as one doesn't occur before its reached. I'm not trying to load up long or anything, as I think we go much lower, but its just some support I'm noting.

 

[MandelbrotSet]

Quote from iloveoptions:

Thanks for asking. I've opened new positions in the 1390 calls when we slipped below 1400, and sold out of my last Put. I'll be holding my call positions till expiry (next week) or 1420, which ever comes first. The model tells me that tomorrow should be an up day which would be nice since I'm holding quite a few calls now.

Yeah I noticed that.

Good Trading

P.S. That's sincere.

If the Journal becomes nothing but a flame-fest of guys who post their trades and the nOObs who come by and criticize them pretty soon the only thing left are going to be B1S2 and nOObs ...

Ah, good to see my overnight Long trades purchased @ 1391.50 have come in nicely, closing them out here at 1396.50 – on its way to 1400. As per B1S2's rules, this trade isn't part of his Journal, just my account, the only place it matters ...