ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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I did not quantified edges but I researched situation similar like this one /position of EMA and price on daily and monthly/. Usually in past situation like this /over half year bellow 200 daily EMA/ than it will: 1. 200 day daily EMA was always broken that way that we ended above it /not until now on ES but important is SPY/ but it never converted to support on first attempt /can but wee need try it more times/.
2. We will dance around 200 day EMA a bit usually 2-3 months. We will not fall so quickly from here
3. We can expect big leg down as minimum to 50 monthly Ema /SPY/ we can assume that it will be somewhere around 1340 at that time or with similar probability to 100 EMA that will be 1220 approximately. Last barrier is 200 EMA /around 1000/ that held strong during history.
4. If this big leg down will be enough big we can expect that it will be last one. However until we get well developped bull market will need time.

So this wedge can keep some time more.

Quote from iloveoptions:

Thanks for your explanation. I wonder though if anyone has done any deep research regarding UP wedges, and what is their accuracy in predicting a break? Also when they do break, what is usually the size of the move in relation to the length of wedge (from bottom of wedge to top)? Does it retrace 50%, 75% etc. of the entire wedge? Please don't hesitate to share with us if you know the answer.
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Quote from JSSPMK:

What is an initial stop?

Also, would you have stopped out at 1408.75 considering today's p/a? TY!
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An initial stop is a hard stop and then I will move the stop in the direction of the trade (In this case upwards). I have not had an opportunity to raise this stop yet, since the market has not moved in my direction, and I may very well get stopped out.
 
Quote from JSSPMK:


Buy1Sell2 considers that chart as bullish still as reaction lows that are of key importance (to him & others) remain intact. But I think before (beginning of this journal) he would have scaled into a short position looking at something like this, now he follows a trend, hence he is still bullish, please correct me if I am mistaken.
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Yes, I agree. I would have scaled into the short. However, typing in this journal, as well as advancing age and experience has shown me that the all in trend following nets me more over the long haul than the top picking with no hard stop etc. I just don't enjoy the feeling of "being right" as much anymore and ammore concerned about having the full position on for a good run. :)

JSSMPK has been paying attention--Thank you--Ishmael.
 
Quote from MandelbrotSet:

From a position trader's standpoint the lows were established in the early part of the year, the market is merely testing resistance right now, and we'll probably see the 1500's sometime in the near future (when? - don't know).
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Agreed and I don't know when either, but I remain bullish for now. I think price would need to break 1380 to get real bearish. I suspect that the intraday chart bearishness will not carry us that far.
 
I would say that the probable scenario would be that my stop at 1408.75 gets taken out prior to a further up swing although the upswing might not be immediate. I will get long again with a larger position size on the next long should this occur.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I would say that the probable scenario would be that my stop at 1408.75 gets taken out prior to a further up swing although the upswing might not be immediate. I will get long again with a larger position size on the next long should this occur.
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on minor corrections against a major trend add to position,bull mrkts add to positions on selloffs to support
 
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