ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from Pekelo:

OK, what stop do you use? I use a 3 pts trailing stop. Usually if it moves 2 pts in the money I bring it up to breakeven.

And I guess Volente's answer is that he uses other things to decide when to exit and scaling out. So the bottomline is that the rule of 10 is a good entry strategy, but the exit would depend on other factors.

Correct?

Or here is another way: Use a 2pts stop with a 2 pts exit. Since the win/lose ratio is better than 50% with this strategy, it should be profitable in the long run...
Thank you Pekelo for posting today. I have been waiting for someone else to point out these items. The key issue , as I have said before is that by itself, it is really useless and insignificant. It suggests that the market fluctuates between 1400 and 1410 and will until the end of time. So in essence, it never allows you to capture the big move which is really what trading is all about . ie keeping losses small and capitalizing on letting the winners run.

Things that should be asked are indeed how big of a stop? Do you let it run 2, 3 ,5 or 10 points? Do you trail a stop etc etc etc. None of these items have been addressed and thus the rule while it may work, is singularly nothing.

Now, I have no problem with someone using a rule of 10 signal (or any other signal) to get long on a pullback in an uptrending market, but then you would use something other than the rule of 10 to exit. Otherwise, you would never be able to capture the large moves as we all know that the market does not in fact fluctuate between 1400 and 1410 in perpetuity. This is now certainly my last post on the subject although I thought I had made my position clear before, apparently I hadn't and I had to revisit this. Everyone knows my stance now and I will not comment on this rule anymore. Thank you for your time. :)
 
Quote from volente_00:

3 am europe fade theory is worthless too



http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_ES.M08.E&v=s
Yep, and looking at the bonds to get a read on the ES is pretty damn useless too, now that I mention it. :p

Dear B1S2:

Dogma is what doesn't work in the real world. :D

P.S. This will be my last post on the subject also, as I've seen you trade intra-day, it's nothing to write home about, and your expertise is probably best left to the things that you know about and can do well. :cool:
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

the big move which is really what trading is all about .
QUOTE] this is one way of trading,blaster scalping is another way of trading,there are a million more
 
Quote from MandelbrotSet:

Yep, and looking at the bonds to get a read on the ES is pretty damn useless too, now that I mention it. :p

Dear B1S2:

Dogma is what doesn't work in the real world.
:D

No matter what system is used, you must control risk. This is all that can be controlled. If attempting to control profits, then you are selling yourself short even though you may be profitable. The ape throwing darts at the board is profitable with the proper stop, even if the darts have him buying extremely overbought conditions.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Thank you Pekelo for posting today. I have been waiting for someone else to point out these items. The key issue , as I have said before is that by itself, it is really useless and insignificant. It suggests that the market fluctuates between 1400 and 1410 and will until the end of time. So in essence, it never allows you to capture the big move which is really what trading is all about . ie keeping losses small and capitalizing on letting the winners run.

Things that should be asked are indeed how big of a stop? Do you let it run 2, 3 ,5 or 10 points? Do you trail a stop etc etc etc. None of these items have been addressed and thus the rule while it may work, is singularly nothing.

Now, I have no problem with someone using a rule of 10 signal (or any other signal) to get long on a pullback in an uptrending market, but then you would use something other than the rule of 10 to exit. Otherwise, you would never be able to capture the large moves as we all know that the market does not in fact fluctuate between 1400 and 1410 in perpetuity. This is now certainly my last post on the subject although I thought I had made my position clear before, apparently I hadn't and I had to revisit this. Everyone knows my stance now and I will not comment on this rule anymore. Thank you for your time. :)




Not my fault you got stopped out twice already on your longs by placing your stop at a rule of 10 entry area to go long. Show me where I say the market will trade in a 10 point range? Once the range is broken, you look for the new signal, one can take the entry and then trail the stop and capture as much as you have patience for or as muchas the market will give you. Not everyone on here is trying to hold long term and make 100 points on a swing trade. Some are shooting to make it in 1 day.
 
b1 is right though, the rule is useless by itself.

It is the proper trade management and scaling after entry that allows it to become a profitable strategy.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

For example, the short you just put on could be the beginning of a 20, 30 or 40 point move or it could be nothing. We just don't know that right now. So, no matter what time frame you are on, you could still catch a big move. Many traders think that because they are trading a 1, 2 3 minute timeframe, that the stop and profit on each trade will be small or in the case of the profit, limited. Not so!:)


And for that reason alone is why scaling out is better in an unknown trading environment.



10 trades

2 contracts, 3 point stop , 10 point target

no scale trying to get 10 point on everytrade ~ 30 % win rate

losses = 7 trades x 2 contracts x 3 point stop = - 42 points

wins = 3 trades x 2 contracts x 10 point target = +60 points


net +18 points



scaling out


2 contracts 3 point target on half, stop then to break even, , 3 point initial stop 80% win rate



2 contracts x 3 points x 2 losing trades = - 12 point


2 contracts x {(10 +3) points / 2 } x 2 winning trades = +26 points



other 6 trades

1 contracts x 3 points x 6 winning trades = 18 points
1 contract x 0 points (break even stop hit) 0 points


Net = 32 points



Which would you rather have after 10 trades ?


18 or 32 points ?
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

No matter what system is used, you must control risk. This is all that can be controlled. If attempting to control profits, then you are selling yourself short even though you may be profitable. The ape throwing darts at the board is profitable with the proper stop, even if the darts have him buying extremely overbought conditions.


what if the ape's 3 darts lands on enron, worldcom, and global crossing ?






:D
 
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