ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from vertigo3:

BigBubba,
does this AH price action mean that the WW depicted in the chart by tortoise has failed?
Do you include the AH in the chart or is just for RTH?

I have seen (several times) on this journal posts Identifying gartley's, and I don't remember one that worked (when the gartley was identified BEFORE the expected move) as opposed to seeing it "after" the move.

I have attached a chart to this post.

The first time I saw a bearish wolfe wave I said to myself, it's a bearish wedge. However, since I do not have the precise rules postulated by Wolfe, I do not know exactly the relationship between the time spent between p1 and p2, p3 p4 because, apparently, a symmetry of time is needed to add validity to the formation.

in the attached chart you can see bearish ww on the daily spx cash. these same points (1,3,5) and (2,4) would be the places that I would draw wedge (bearish wedge) lines.

price point of target of connecting p1 with p4 is 1382-1380 area for today on the cash (based on this count)

see attached chart for crude, uneducated WW count on daily SPX (cash). (WW meaning WolfeWave)

I have another post to make with a different WW count which I will put up in a minute.

One of the reasons I bring this up is because (as I understand it) you have to have an understanding of what the dominant wave is, although I must admit I do not know what the definition of a dominant wave is, but it seems to me that i9f there is a bearish dominant wave in the dailies, then the ony WW's worth looking for in the intraday might be bearish waves. (Believe me, I don't know). I am curious about the WW's because of the price target lines.

The reason I make these observations is because bearish wedge is a favorite pattern, and P3, P5 shows a divergence on the histo (subchart is histo). and a divergence in the histo during a bearish wedge is, well, "bearish" IMO.

there is an alternative WW count on the daily SPX that appears to show much more symmetry (and a more dramatically lower traget line). See post to follow.

Please notice, too, that recent swing high occurred right at/near 50% retracement of the bearish decline from Oct 07 to Jan 08.
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:P
vertigo3, trust me, those questions are well above my level. but good ones at that. i have a fair eye to 'see' WWs now, after some time of watching for them. what i like about them is the frequency in which they will predict turning points. short term and longer term. the rules are not hard.. (the dominant wave tho - i'm not familiar, sorry). but yes, the WW posted last pm failed. i am reluctant to 'trust' a WW when it forms in AH.. just my lack of experience maybe. if you have a chance .. read the thread from the link i posted earlier. waveslider is a much better technician regarding WWs.
maybe this is a dominant wave ..
 

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or...

(this 1 had a nice bearish WW i deleted 'inside' the larger wedge)
the WW you posted on spy looks valid to me.. it would stand out more if the time frame was zoomed in a bit i expect..
oh, i do use 24hr charts .. mostly because i work all day
:(
 

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Quote from Buy1Sell2:

They are already posted. However, if you wish to, you may examine all of my trades in this long bias beginning on page 5820 (4/15/08).This has been quite a profitable month!--Very satisfied. :)
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Maybe i am confused but since 4/29 you have been stopped out on 70+% of your posted es trades from anywhere from8 to 20 points. The ironic thing is nearly every single one of them went in the money from the start so had you scaled out on them, you would have had nearly a 80%+ win rate and more points gained versus what you got from them by lettingthem turn back to losses of 8 to 20 points resulting in even a more profitable month.



:)
 
We are sitting at the uptrend line drawn from Mar on the daily using cash, and also sitting right at or above the various swing highs made in feb til now.

The overall uptrend has been more like a wedge than a real trendy move. The price action just does not add up.

Maybe it is summer trading already?

Or, a lot of vacations have already started due to summer games in august?
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:


Now short same size as first position trade 1387.00

Stop 1440.00

Will not close MOC
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Not totally convinced in this short. I am treating it like a daytrade and pulling my stop down to 1395.25 and will trail down further during the day today.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Stop is too close and the target is too close in my view.:)
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You may be right as far as my stops being tight but keep in mind that we operate in different timeframes. My stops are just right for my style of trading.
 
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