ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Best of luck to you kamek! What products are you trading?

mostly options on indices and a select group of stocks i watch everyday. i'll also be doing news stocks i have about 3 months of living expense. i've been doing this for 2 years so i'll be ok. thx for the good luck wishes
 
Whats up? Just thought I would check in and see how the ES journal is going. Everyone still banging out profits I see... I received some messages asking where I am or if everything is okay. So to clear that up... Back in March I wrote on here about a soybean short trade that I was watching and going to try to ride out a big countertrend swing. I was able to catch this, actually discussed the entry on this journal and really caught a nice one.... one of those rare beauts. So after that I took some time off and realized I just dont have the time to message on here as much as I use to. As most of you are probably in the same boat as I... trading consumes your life and makes it hard to maintain a balanced lifestyle. I just couldnt handle the the work till 1-3am, sleep for 2.5 hours and trade all day the next day as well as messaging on here anymore. I enjoyed it, especially trading through this board with you guys but I needed a change. I decided to daytrade much less, hence the fewer posts and concentrate on my system that I have been developing for about 6 months now. I still trade, but its primarily swing on commodities. I will be getting back into daytrading more once I finish the system but I will be trading a handful of markets, not 15 like I was doing before.

This system(hopefully) will be able to trade any market, any timeframe and is scalable to the millions. Its my baby and I would say its a couple weeks to a month away from being finished. It will definately be daytrading the ES, so once its done I am sure I will be on here more often. Keep up the good trading...

I attached a sniagit of my hardwork... 4 years, 3000 trades, max size 100 ctcs,100k starting equity, fixed position sizing of 1%, $18 per contract roundturn for slipp+comm. I am just starting the optimization phase now so will begin trying it out soon.
 

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Yo Apex!!!!

Short from 1399.75 on rare quadruple MACD divergence on 2 and 3 minute charts. I was originally holding out for 1402 (38.2% fib retracement), but with this divergence (plus RSI divergence) I'm concerned it might not get there, so I'm sticking my toe in the water here.

Yesterday's daily bar was classic bearish engulfing. Looking for much lower, and hoping the T-day boyz are on vacation.
 
I can give you an e-mini forecast:

"Prices will fluctuate." J.P.Morgan's actual response to the question of what will happen with prices (in the stock market) was "they will fluctuate"

but seriously, can anyone remember when/what prices we saw what spectre called a "volatility fan" in the AH a couple of months ago, maybe 3 months ago. Maybe he called it a battle of the bots as price rapidly would go to a new low by a tick or two and then reverse and go to a new high by a tick or two and then reverse etc.
I think that's what happened , can anyone remember date?

The other day (May 4), we had a fat finger in the AH. When it happened, I said to a friend, that the swing in price in that AH managed to identify where the strength in the resting support and resting resistance was (because once large # of contracts (relatively speaking) could absorb the errant executions, price would eventually stop moving in that direction), or so I presume.

OK, so it was a simplistic way of looking at the big range bar, and I don't keep track of volume in the AH, and I don't know how many contracts the bot trading firm applies to a signal, but at least for what it was, that swing from 1417.25 to 1400.75 did offer some sort of definition of where the "depth" was in terms of short-term strength of support and short-term strength of resistance.

Chart attached.

If anyone can remember when that volatility fan occurred I would appreciate knowing to see how prices reacted then.

"Markets are never wrong; opinions are." J.L. Livermore
 

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