ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from blaster1:

Long 60.50. Possible hold till close.

what is the stop?

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from Pekelo:

What can be a valid observation for a particular stock doesn't need to be valid for an index.

The SPX rallied 110 points in 2 weeks from March 18th. According to you that is largely due to overnight upgaps. Unfortunatelly for the theory there were only 2 upgaps that hadn't been filled right away, one was only about 15 or so points on Apr 1st and that day's 43 or so gain came mostly from the rally DURING the day and not from the upgap of 15 points.The other was when the rally started on March 18th...Again, 60+% of the day's gain came during the day and not from the gap...

So your theory is nicely refuted by the intraday advances of March 18th (35 points) , 20th, (30 points) 24th (20 points) and Apr 1st (28points).

Of course I could show the same intraday movements for the selloff of the beginning of the year.

Your statement was simply ridiculous....

My study of SPY (in addition to that of GOOG) covered YEARS of data; your well-chosen outlier-like examples of course were part of the study.

Whether you agree or not is immaterial. The fact is that a significant portion of the gains/losses in a period--over the LONG HAUL, not just a few months--come from overnight holding.

Of course, you are welcome to disregard evidence because it contradicts your preconceived notions. By all means, go right ahead.

Nothing personal.

 

[blaster1]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

what is the stop?

1.5 pt.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

More and more buyable here. Stops need to be relatively closer due to OB condition in my view.

 

[blaster1]

Quote from blaster1:

Long 60.50. Possible hold till close.

Stop hit. Re-entered long 1360. I feel this is going to work out well.

 

[blaster1]

1364 should get some short covering, if we get there.

 

[Kovacs]

Long 2 at 1359.75

Stop at 1358.25

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from smilingsynic:

My study of SPY (in addition to that of GOOG) covered YEARS of data; your well-chosen outlier-like examples of course were part of the study.

Whether you agree or not is immaterial. The fact is that a significant portion of the gains/losses in a period--over the LONG HAUL, not just a few months--come from overnight holding.

Of course, you are welcome to disregard evidence because it contradicts your preconceived notions. By all means, go right ahead.

Nothing personal.

Just did a quick excel spreadsheet during the dead zone here: over the past 1500 market days (since may 2002), holding overnight would have led to over 30 SPY points (commissions + spread not taken into consideration), whereas intraday movement (defined as day's close minus day's open--the sum progress of the market's intraday gyrations) actually was negative to the tune of minus 3.

If you go back to 1993, the effect is even more profound. Overnight holding = 168 +
Sum total of intraday movement = MINUS 75 +

Buying the open on Jan 29, 1993 and holding until close of April 16 would have led (dividends NOT included) to a gain of 92.88 SPY points.

 

[blaster1]

Quote from blaster1:

Stop hit. Re-entered long 1360. I feel this is going to work out well.

Scaled out 1/2 pos 1363 +3. Letting the rest ride.

 

[Kovacs]

Quote from Kovacs:

Long 2 at 1359.75

Stop at 1358.25

Poorly managed trade.

When the offer hit 1362.00, I moved my stop up to 1360.00. I got hit, then watched the ES continue upward.

New bid out at 1362.00