ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from gwac:

Two things

Anyone see the inverse head and shoulders on the daily... Could lead to a massive spring rally...

Curious as to why the market thought GE financial would not take some hits. This should not be a surprise.
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Inverse H&S are just pivots on higher time frames. Check the monthly.

John
 
Well, we're back below the 50 dma.

I believe we still have some gaps to fill on the SPY (see circles).

We have 1 gap around 1327...that'll get filled on Sunday pm, Monday am, no doubt.

But, most notably, we have a gap around March 18th, 2008, which has SPY around 129ish. That corresponds to about 1290 on the ES. If that gets filled, it's a potential big moneymaker. Oh, the MACD is about to roll over, too.


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Here's S&P fibs... Charts tell us that we closed just below the 38% fib. We'll likely head to the 50% fib (low 1320s sunday pm or monday am). Then, we have a drop to 1305ish.

Of course, note the heavy resistance in the mid 138s, and the obvious support down at 125. We're trapped in a trading range, but IMHO, with all the financials reporting, there will be volatility. I don't think we retest Jan and March lows, but I do think we're heading lower.

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In mid Nov 2006, we have a 5 day going nowhere setup.
It is very hard to get such congested setup over the years.

Then a break below and running back up for 1 day.

Then the sell off of 20+ pts.

That matches the condition up to friday.

The interesting part is that in Nov 2006, the sell off did not continue and after a gap down the market held the level for 1 day and then took off.

So sellers beware. :)
 
My analyse

I am doing lot of research about indicator setups. If I am correct in situation where we are now bottom boolinger band must be touched /130 SPY/. This does not mean that it must be on Monday, my guess is that it has time about a week.

I am doing research about repeating situations. If I am correct in my setups it indicates to me on Monday 1./ gap down /as minimum small/, 2./ run down from this point 3./ gap fill 4./ end of day similar to the open. Doji star but not morning star because next day should be in mostly bellow or about this star.

The only scenario how both /boolinger band touching and doji star/ is possible on Monday will be gap down to 132, falling to 130, back to 133.3 and retracement to 132.5 as minimum. This looks to me to wild to be true, I think it can not be done in one day.

May be we can make doji star tomorrow, later down to boolinger /there can be few consolidation days or slow slide/.


If boolinger touch will be followed by strong bounce /especially if made by gap down/ I believe the downtrend will be broken and we will break the 1385 resistance during month. If the wild scenario described above will happen tomorrow than much earlier.
If there will be no clear response to boolinger touch than I think 126 support will be very seriously tested in short time and may be broken.

Ok, I never made such complex analyse until now. I am very curious if I am starting understand how it works...
 
Like you I also only use market orders. If you want in get in, out? then get out!

By the way, at what vol level should one consider moving to the large Nasdaq contract from the emini??

Thanks, Mh


Quote from spike500:

About the learning curve: lost money the first 5 years, break even or small profits the next 5 years, really profitable after 10 years only. My learning curve was fairly long, probably I was not as smart as the average trader. The final results did compensate all.
But was is the definition of bigger success? Making 10% a month after 5 years or making 100% a month after 10 years? The length of the learning curve has to be linked to the performance that is reached, otherwise the number of years don’t say anything.

How I enter the market?
Once the trend is defined, the correct subsystem takes over. It analyses where we are in the scenario that should unfold and decides how to enter the market, sometimes I have to enter immediately, sometimes I have to wait. I always use market orders. The scenario can also give a reliable prediction how long we have to stay in a trade, on condition that the scenario unfolds as it should.
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Quote from Lawrence Chan:

In mid Nov 2006, we have a 5 day going nowhere setup.
It is very hard to get such congested setup over the years.

Then a break below and running back up for 1 day.

Then the sell off of 20+ pts.

That matches the condition up to friday.

The interesting part is that in Nov 2006, the sell off did not continue and after a gap down the market held the level for 1 day and then took off.

So sellers beware. :)
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Please identify specific dates you are referring to in Nov of 06, (Nov 16 thru 21?) because to me, (relative to the bottoming formations in place right now), Friday looks much more like AUgust 10 or 11 of 2006,

Are you specifically just using very small 5-day ranges as your marker, meaning small range of April 2 thru 8 of this year?
either way, looks like downside should be limited.
 
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