ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Allen3]

Quote from Spectre2007:

FEDs stated mandate is full employment, the ramifications of a early jump start in equities means, Oil prices will be bouyed up.

The FED knows this, the only way Oil stays down is a collapse of epic proportions globally. If Oil is allowed to be maintained at current levels, geopolitical power will shift to EAST BLOC/RUSSIA, the defense/oil conglomerates only fear death at the hands of nuclear ballistic modernized and aimed at their interests. As wealth continues to flow to Russian/Chinese hands, with intellectual knowhow arms race will be evened out with US levels, and utlimately the USA/Western nations can't allows this.

A global collapse is needed for power to shift back to US hands. Don't let this blip convince you otherwise, the FED/CIA/NSA and geopolitical think tanks know the ramifications of a elevated Oil price.

So a collapse of epic proportions will be at hand. Inflation will be allowed to surface in stated numbers to give the FED a hawkish stance in the face of deflationary pressures. This will lead to start of tight money policy and a strengthening dollar, weakening Oil price and a 'Depressionary Era' economy.

The derivatives bubble will be popped intentionally.

Chris

I little paranoid, but in the end I think accurate. I definitely buy into the inflation, higher interest rates, crappy-crappy times. Not looking forward to it much but there you go.

thanks for posting your view. How did the trip to the shelter islands go? Maybe we should all take a trip.

JIM

 

[volente_00]

Quote from joeyata1:

weres that rule of 10,20,30 or 40. when them rules don't work its ugly. a lot of es careers were ended if you were short and stubborn

and monday when there were 6 signals without one bad one ?

 

[Pholeuon]

Volente, using simple logic under those premises you can conclude that on Monday did not ended many ES carreers.
/they still have time for it/.

 

[RsX]

Quote from tommymoose:


Now for the gorgeous sell-zone just overhead... some early resistance at 72-75 should help slow the market down for the real sick zone at 1378-1380... stop of no more than a couple points... I gotta strongly emphasize how good this zone this is for an amazing R/R trade right now

I like the analysis. I have 1381.50-1384.50 as the zone where some larger supply should come in. We'll probably need more than 1 test of the zone for it to confirm as strong resistance, so I'm trying to be patient there, especially considering yesterday's move.

On the long side, I'd like to get a position on at the 1357.00-1360.00 zone to ride it up to that 1380 area. Not comfortable with buying any higher than that.

 

[Spectre2007]

Quote from Allen3:

I little paranoid, but in the end I think accurate. I definitely buy into the inflation, higher interest rates, crappy-crappy times. Not looking forward to it much but there you go.

thanks for posting your view. How did the trip to the shelter islands go? Maybe we should all take a trip.

JIM

Island life is amazing, if I didn't have obligations, I would be there living a modest life.

Will probably checkout Turks n Caicos next, and Hilton Head in May.

 

[tommymoose]

Quote from RsX:

I like the analysis. I have 1381.50-1384.50 as the zone where some larger supply should come in. We'll probably need more than 1 test of the zone for it to confirm as strong resistance, so I'm trying to be patient there, especially considering yesterday's move.

On the long side, I'd like to get a position on at the 1357.00-1360.00 zone to ride it up to that 1380 area. Not comfortable with buying any higher than that.

Nice call for ~1360 to ride up. Now its the decision point. The first jab up to 77.25 got rejected nicely... lets see how it reacts at 78-80. This trade has me excited

Shit....gotta go to class.... limit sitting at 78.50 stop 81.50... holding for mucho points

 

[Allen3]

Quote from riaamaan:

^ Such a scenario should produce a misery threshold that will force economic reform. IMHO, the fed should be abolished if they don't actually fail on their own (my understanding is that central banks have failed twice before).

Maybe this is what it would take to return to what I consider to be the much sounder principles of the US Constitution...free markets and sound money.

I think it's to late for all that. Great depression entitlement mentality has only served to cause people to turn more toward the government for help. The cats out of the bag. There's no catching it now. If you want what US was founded on you've got to find someplace that is coming out of truly horrible times and having to rebuild a government. Who knows maybe we'll get there at some point. Until then unless you want to leave US we got to do what we got to do. Taking care of family, friends, homes, and trying to find a way to work within this system.

JIM

 

[tommymoose]

I gotta take class off for this morning...

Long NQM8 at 1864.75 off 1-min div to take us back up to 1869... stop at 1863.75

:stopped for a point... saving my ammo for the sell zone now:

 

[Allen3]

Quote from Spectre2007:

Island life is amazing, if I didn't have obligations, I would be there living a modest life.

Will probably checkout Turks n Caicos next, and Hilton Head in May.

Sounds delightful. Never been there but want to at some point. Hilton head is pretty nice I've been there a couple of times. Really nice low country vibe if your in to the low key thing. Lots of pretty scenery and things to do.

We're headed to small hill towns in Tuscany this summer. They've got the laid back thing down pat there to. Only real downside is that I didn't buy the euro in November when the trip firmed up. Oh well. Thanks again.

JIM

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Spectre,

In order to shift the power back, many things have to be accomplished all at the same time.

1. Lower oil prices dramatically
2. Worldwide economic slow down
3. Lower prices of commodities

#1 and #3 can be done with strong dollar, however #2 can only be done with depressed US consumption ...

So, for the stock mkt and housing mkts to go back down, watch for the topping sign in USD should give us hints on the timing?

USD has been technically oversold and the current "not so great" bounce is still underway.