ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from tommymoose:

Just a little "set-in-and-forget-it" swing trade for tomorrow using SSO. Long in blue zone, stop below red. I'm not over convinced it'll work but its a decent setup... plus low leverage...
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Its a damn shame SSO doesn't trade at 3AM when I would have gotten an entry. Nice to see the zone worked like a champ though... 1315, right in the heart of it.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1863546


Now for the gorgeous sell-zone just overhead... some early resistance at 72-75 should help slow the market down for the real sick zone at 1378-1380... stop of no more than a couple points... I gotta strongly emphasize how good this zone this is for an amazing R/R trade right now :)
 

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Based on the move today the "intention" is clear - creating a new "buy zone" in 1350 and 1360 as a base to fight the "obvious" sell zone of 1380.

This kind of base building was very common even back in 1990s.

Just that they did not "run" everyone with a single day 40 pts move ...
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Based on the move today the "intention" is clear - creating a new "buy zone" in 1350 and 1360 as a base to fight the "obvious" sell zone of 1380.
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I'm just wondering, why do you find the 1380 sell zone so obvious? I don't see anything obvious about it from layman analysis (a good thing) other than the longer-term downslopeing trendline. I'm not calling you a layman at all, I'm just saying obvious should be a DT or something else of the sort.

I expect the bounce off this zone to be hard.... straight up action today has longs stops just under market... primed for some waterfalling sell action.
 
About a month ago (not too sure about the date as I am under influence of some fine red wine at the moment :) ) , I posted that big funds are waiting for the daily, weekly, etc. moving averages to move closer to the prices to see what they are going to do next.

As we already know, the price of S&P cash stayed at the 1300 to 1250 level for a month, that dragged all the higher time frame moving averages lower. Those moving averages, with some proper extensions, are also the stop points for the major short sellers.

Think of PPT for a moment. How do you print a price to make it looks like a bottom is in?

The swing low right before mid Jan gave away the price point that someone wanted a low at that price - mid 1370s to 1380.

Most of the funds with short positions and having the ability to do sell programs will ensure that this price level is never seen until they cover at a much lower price level.

On the other hand, PPT and wire houses wanted the market to go higher no matter no real buyers have ever stepped in.

So, expect the sellers to win the 1st battle when 1380 is hit and a retreat to 1350 to 1360 is made.

Then if big short sellers give up, they will cover and 1420 will be reached.

Supply and Demand - nothing more, nothing less.
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

About a month ago (not too sure about the date as I am under influence of some fine red wine at the moment :) ) , I posted that big funds are waiting for the daily, weekly, etc. moving averages to move closer to the prices to see what they are going to do next.

As we already know, the price of S&P cash stayed at the 1300 to 1250 level for a month, that dragged all the higher time frame moving averages lower. Those moving averages, with some proper extensions, are also the stop points for the major short sellers.

Think of PPT for a moment. How do you print a price to make it looks like a bottom is in?

The swing low right before mid Jan gave away the price point that someone wanted a low at that price - mid 1370s to 1380.

Most of the funds with short positions and having the ability to do sell programs will ensure that this price level is never seen until they cover at a much lower price level.

On the other hand, PPT and wire houses wanted the market to go higher no matter no real buyers have ever stepped in.

So, expect the sellers to win the 1st battle when 1380 is hit and a retreat to 1350 to 1360 is made.

Then if big short sellers give up, they will cover and 1420 will be reached.

Supply and Demand - nothing more, nothing less.
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FEDs stated mandate is full employment, the ramifications of a early jump start in equities means, Oil prices will be bouyed up.

The FED knows this, the only way Oil stays down is a collapse of epic proportions globally. If Oil is allowed to be maintained at current levels, geopolitical power will shift to EAST BLOC/RUSSIA, the defense/oil conglomerates only fear death at the hands of nuclear ballistic modernized and aimed at their interests. As wealth continues to flow to Russian/Chinese hands, with intellectual knowhow arms race will be evened out with US levels, and utlimately the USA/Western nations can't allows this.

A global collapse is needed for power to shift back to US hands. Don't let this blip convince you otherwise, the FED/CIA/NSA and geopolitical think tanks know the ramifications of a elevated Oil price.

So a collapse of epic proportions will be at hand. Inflation will be allowed to surface in stated numbers to give the FED a hawkish stance in the face of deflationary pressures. This will lead to start of tight money policy and a strengthening dollar, weakening Oil price and a 'Depressionary Era' economy.

The derivatives bubble will be popped intentionally.

Chris
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

FEDs stated mandate is full employment, the ramifications of a early jump start in equities means, Oil prices will be bouyed up.

The FED knows this, the only way Oil stays down is a collapse of epic proportions globally. If Oil is allowed to be maintained at current levels, geopolitical power will shift to EAST BLOC/RUSSIA, the defense/oil conglomerates only fear death at the hands of nuclear ballistic modernized and aimed at their interests. As wealth continues to flow to Russian/Chinese hands, with intellectual knowhow arms race will be evened out with US levels, and utlimately the USA/Western nations can't allows this.

A global collapse is needed for power to shift back to US hands. Don't let this blip convince you otherwise, the FED/CIA/NSA and geopolitical think tanks know the ramifications of a elevated Oil price.

So a collapse of epic proportions will be at hand. Inflation will be allowed to surface in stated numbers to give the FED a hawkish stance in the face of deflationary pressures. This will lead to start of tight money policy and a strengthening dollar, weakening Oil price and a 'Depressionary Era' economy.

The derivatives bubble will be popped intentionally.

Chris
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Interesting and strong scenario.
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

FEDs stated mandate is full employment, the ramifications of a early jump start in equities means, Oil prices will be bouyed up.

The FED knows this, the only way Oil stays down is a collapse of epic proportions globally. If Oil is allowed to be maintained at current levels, geopolitical power will shift to EAST BLOC/RUSSIA, the defense/oil conglomerates only fear death at the hands of nuclear ballistic modernized and aimed at their interests. As wealth continues to flow to Russian/Chinese hands, with intellectual knowhow arms race will be evened out with US levels, and utlimately the USA/Western nations can't allows this.

A global collapse is needed for power to shift back to US hands. Don't let this blip convince you otherwise, the FED/CIA/NSA and geopolitical think tanks know the ramifications of a elevated Oil price.

So a collapse of epic proportions will be at hand. Inflation will be allowed to surface in stated numbers to give the FED a hawkish stance in the face of deflationary pressures. This will lead to start of tight money policy and a strengthening dollar, weakening Oil price and a 'Depressionary Era' economy.

The derivatives bubble will be popped intentionally.

Chris
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Spectre - I read all your comments in the journal but I find this one particularly interesting. I have long thought the about the consequences of the oil scenario but your detailed thought is very interesting to say the least - thanks for the input.
 
^ Such a scenario should produce a misery threshold that will force economic reform. IMHO, the fed should be abolished if they don't actually fail on their own (my understanding is that central banks have failed twice before).

Maybe this is what it would take to return to what I consider to be the much sounder principles of the US Constitution...free markets and sound money.
 
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