ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[trackstar]

Quote from smilingsynic:

One of the strongest pieces of evidence that the random market hypothesis is flawed is the fact that the opening price, more often than should be possible statistically, is often close to either the high or low.

This pattern is true on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis.

I use that in many many ways. People should spend less time on indicators and more time focusing on the Open/Close/Gaps.

 

[blaster1]

Quote from blaster1:

Short 1360.25, 1 pt stop.

Covered 1358.25 +2.

 

[RsX]

Wouldn't be shorting this market right now except for a few point scalps (which I don't do normally). 1359-1362 is a decent probability resistance area, but I expect some consolidation below this area, nothing more.

 

[blaster1]

1360 short was based on rule of 10.

 

[gwac]

Have a look at the last time we moved up to 60 from the 20`s a week ago. It is almost identical on the hour chart.

Quote from blaster1:

1360 short was based on rule of 10.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from gwac:

Have a look at the last time we moved up to 60 from the 20`s a week ago. It is almost identical on the hour chart.

Must push it up as high as possible before bad news hit

 

[Chuck Krug]

/buys ES apr 1300 puts @ 8.55 avg

 

[CPTrader]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Must push it up as high as possible before bad news hit

Why are you guys so biased to the bearish side? No difference between you and those with a bullish bias.

These biases are dangerous.

 

[tortoise]

Quote from CPTrader:

Why are you guys so biased to the bearish side? No difference between you and those with a bullish bias.

These biases are dangerous.

Agreed....I've had to work really hard to purge myself of all "hunches"....still not entirely there, but working on it

 

[vertigo3]

gwac
I don't know that the current test of the 60 level is the same as the last time.
see the attached chart.
I think prices are simply in the first strong thrust.

look at chart.
magenta line is 34 period time series forecast line (1plusbar)

in the circle on the left side of the chart(Mar20 through Mar24), notice that the first thrust higher (I think similar to the current thrust), did reach a point of consolidation and prices meandered sideways, cutting across the magenta 34 period TSF (depicted in the black box) The current market hasn't displayed consolidation yet.

Getting back to the March 24th move to 1360, that ultimate run to the 60 area (talking about the run back on March 24) did not occur until after the box of consolidation and a bullish break back up through the ascending TSF34.

That's what I expect from current market

that box took place at roughly 2/3 of the way through the bullish run up. If we assume same for current conditions, ultimate upside for current market (assuming 1st leg is topping at roughly 1360), would be a move (ultimately, tomorrow) to the 1386 area.

this info and a billion dollars would make me a millionaire