ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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I don't know whether you should try to put too much spin on the end of the quarter window dressing. Just watch the prices. Back in the big bad bear 2000-2002, there were a couple of "end of the quarter" days that suffered big sell-offs because money managers did not want to show the bad performers.
It's definitely safer, but you'll miss the move more often than not. That is, when trying to ride the trend by entering on pullbacks. Multi-day trends do end with consolidation and usually with a visible double or triple test of support/resistance area, yes. That's a good time to be patient.
However, pullbacks in the middle of a prevalent trend usually don't do several tests - they pull back to a retracement confluence area and get often slammed back in the direction of the primary trend from there. Or, if not slammed, then just pressed down slowly without giving a second chance to get a good R/R . This especially happens in downtrends and say, for example, if the multi-day trend is in line with the multi-week trend such as it is now. For uptrends, there tends to be more consolidation at pullbacks so you "can afford" to be more patient.
In other words.. in my experience, patience is a must in successful trading, but one can not be too careful and must know when to anticipate a move when the signal comes and put on a good R/R trade with somewhat lower probability vs when to sit on the hands and wait for confirmation / re-test. So, it's best to use combination of both approaches, but in the end it always comes down to personal preference and trading style and neither approach is actually right or wrong.
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