ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

Status
Not open for further replies.
I think if the 50 MA fails as resistance (and it looks like it will) then the next resistance level is the 200 MA. The MBIA/ABK downgrade is off the table. A financial meltdown is also now off the table. Rising unemployment is not off the table nor is a recession. I think markets will rally on relief then selloff again later when they realize that rising unemployment and recession is a much bigger and tougher problem than writeoffs in the financial sector or an MBIA/ABK downgrade.
 
Quote from david Lee:

Thanks for the reply, callmate.
I did a back test on just close-open for Tue and Thu 2007 till now
Looks like there is no particular bias. I think what you said like gap down, down spike, and 10:30 plays a more important role.

T day, ES close-open, accumulation
20070104 4.5 4.5
20070109 -1.8 2.7
20070111 7 9.7
20070116 -0.8 8.9
20070118 -7.3 1.6
20070123 5.3 6.9
20070125 -15 -8.1
20070130 4.3 -3.8
20070201 4.5 0.7
20070206 -1.5 -0.8
20070208 0.8 -1.55431E-15
20070213 7.5 7.5
20070215 1.5 9
20070220 5.3 14.3
20070222 -2.3 12
20070227 -39 -27
20070301 13 -14
20070306 10 -4
20070308 0.3 -3.7
20070313 -21.3 -25
20070315 5.8 -19.2
20070320 9 -10.2
20070322 -1.3 -11.5
20070327 -3.8 -15.3
20070329 -4 -19.3
20070403 6.8 -12.5
20070405 6.3 -6.2
20070410 4.8 -1.4
20070412 10.3 8.9
20070417 1.3 10.2
20070419 4.8 15
20070424 -1.5 13.5
20070426 -1 12.5
20070501 0.8 13.3
20070503 3.3 16.6
20070515 -3.3 13.3
20070517 0.3 13.6
20070522 -1.3 12.3
20070524 -15.3 -3
20070529 1.8 -1.2
20070531 -3 -4.2
20070605 -2.5 -6.7
20070607 -22.3 -29
20070612 -10.3 -39.3
20070614 6.8 -32.5
20070619 5.8 -26.7
20070621 9.3 -17.4
20070626 -11.3 -28.7
20070628 0.3 -28.4
20070629 -6 -34.4
20070705 -0.3 -34.7
20070710 -14.5 -49.2
20070712 24.3 -24.9
20070717 -1.5 -26.4
20070719 0.3 -26.1
20070724 -20 -46.1
20070726 -16.8 -62.9
20070731 -30.5 -93.4
20070802 5.5 -87.9
20070807 17.3 -70.6
20070809 -18.3 -88.9
20070814 -30 -118.9
20070816 18.5 -100.4
20070821 3.3 -97.1
20070823 -7.8 -104.9
20070828 -33.8 -138.7
20070830 -5.5 -144.2
20070904 18.3 -125.9
20070906 3.3 -122.6
20070911 13.8 -108.8
20070913 2.3 -106.5
20070918 36.3 -70.2
20070920 -10.3 -80.5
20070925 8.5 -72
20070927 0.5 -71.5
20071002 -1.8 -73.3
20071004 0.5 -72.8
20071009 8.3 -64.5
20071011 -16 -80.5
20071016 -6.5 -87
20071018 3.8 -83.2
20071023 6 -77.2
20071025 -3.5 -80.7
20071030 -4 -84.7
20071101 -26.8 -111.5
20071106 13 -98.5
20071108 -4.5 -103
20071113 29.8 -73.2
20071115 -14.8 -88
20071127 14.3 -73.7
20071129 6.3 -67.4
20071204 -0.5 -67.9
20071206 24.8 -43.1
20071211 -41.3 -84.4
20071213 10 -74.4
20071218 -2.5 -76.9
20071220 -3.5 -80.4
20071221 9.5 -70.9
20071227 -16.5 -87.4
20071231 -7.5 -94.9
20080103 -4.5 -99.4
20080108 -33.3 -132.7
20080110 21.3 -111.4
20080115 -17.3 -128.7
20080117 -44.5 -173.2
20080122 46.8 -126.4
20080124 8 -118.4
20080129 -0.5 -118.9
20080131 38.8 -80.1
20080205 -21.3 -101.4
20080207 17 -84.4
20080212 0.5 -83.9
20080214 -19.5 -103.4
20080219 -16.5 -119.9
20080221 -21.8 -141.7
20080226 16 -125.7
20080228 -2.8 -128.5
20080304 7 -121.5
20080306 -22 -143.5
20080311 16.8 -126.7
20080313 23.5 -103.2
20080318 28.3 -74.9
20080320 27.5 -47.4
More...




Where in my theory does it say to buy the open and sell the close ?


Day does not always end green, just get back to green from a down move.
 
thanks for the data though, how about a measurement of close vs. the low of the day. smallest value is 0, higher the number, higher the value.
 
New low made at the beginning of the day

1300 level defended

Cash close above daily 20 SMA, right at the level fed day printed at close

AND, future sell off after close to the perfect 1325 price for option expiration

What more can you ask for - every one get a piece of the action :)

Have a nice long weekend everyone!
 
lol what gap down? as far as i can see the market was hardly down today. there was no gap down. to use illiquid overnight and pre dawn hours trading to justify a theory for the nest day is bogus.90% of people have lives and families and can't watch the market 24-7.one thing all must understand. theres 100 rules out there and at different times 1 will always work. like the rule of 10,20 30 etc. in any given day if we're down 30 pts 1 of the above will work but many people get stopped out many times before 1 works and when it works they take there profit very fast. if all these rules work 80%of the time as some say then simply set up a automated program and sit there all day and watch it print $. i'm sure the gentleman with the computer program can back test any theory on here and it won't work more than 50-60% of the time
 
Sorry, vol. no offence. Just some discussion.

Your posts are the ones I always checked first before looking at the chart. I admire your insight and sense. Keep on the good work here.

Quote from volente_00:

Where in my theory does it say to buy the open and sell the close ?


Day does not always end green, just get back to green from a down move.
More...
 
bidask,

Jun ES
WED 2008/03/19 9:30am price 1338.25 according to my trade station feed

THURS 2008/03/20 9:30am price 1303.50

THURS 2008/03/20
first one minute bar (9:30am to 9:31am) showed
O 1303.50
H 1304.25
L 1302.75
C 1304.00
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top