ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from avarus:

Yes, they would take it to 1312+ on that day, take it down one more time (we got to 1250, I was pushing for 1200) and that a new bull position should be built after the push down. Played out like I wrote the script.

Now we took out the 1343 stops. Nada for the bulls now. Had we turned down before taking out 1343 we would have busted out to new highs.
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That helps. I take it you consider 1250-1260 highly likely. How likely do you consider 1200?

The 1343 swing top (if that's what it turns out to be) is very close to a trendline touch on both my weekly $SPX and daily ESM charts. The next obvious topping point on the weekly (from both an S/R and TL standpoint) would have been sligtly north of 1400, and even a rise to that level could keep the bear trend intact.

Ignoring price levels for a moment: Does this (less than 5 months since the highs) not seem an awfully short period of time for a bear market to have run its course? Isn't it a little early in calendar time to be looking for the bull to awaken?
 
Quote from avarus:

This could be the one to take us down to 1200.
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That's an awfully long shot. But anything could happen of course. If you don't mind me asking, what's your time frame on that call. I'm expecting that we close between the middle and upper range of todays trading (unlike what happened after the previous 400 point run up last week), with some testing of the mid to upper 1320's .
 
Quote from Spooz Top:

[Bi may not agree with most here on their decision making process but far be it from me to judge them as i have no idea what their methodolygy consists of....just as pekelo has no idea what it is that b1s2 is actually doing here.
. [/B]
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That's precisely the point as you are no one else has any idea what the methodology is. It's silly at best to say I'm going long here, short here, my stop is here without explaining a premise. Otherwise, its appears to be just a big guessing game.
 
Quote from dmartin:

That's precisely the point as you are no one else has any idea what the methodology is. It's silly at best to say I'm going long here, short here, my stop is here without explaining a premise. Otherwise, its appears to be just a big guessing game.
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100 percent of my trading methodology has been revealed here at ET. It should be easy now to see exactly what my trading system is. Suffice it to say that I am a long term trend follower ie I only trade one side at a time with an extreme bias. Right now, my bias is short. Right now I am currently short the ES with an eye on the area above 1343 as a place to stop out. I will not be rewriting the information that I have already provided. It is already out there. Good fortune to all :)

Reminder : I never risk more than 2 percent of total liquid net worth on any one trade/idea.
 
Quote from dmartin:

That's precisely the point as you are no one else has any idea what the methodology is. It's silly at best to say I'm going long here, short here, my stop is here without explaining a premise. Otherwise, its appears to be just a big guessing game.
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Often there is no time for that, at least on intraday trades.

Which is why I don't post most of my trades here.

Another reason is that this is someone else's journal. :)
 
Quote from mbusch:

I'm having difficulty reconciling those two posts. Can you clarify please?
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Quote from avarus:

I have a short-term target here of 1312 for longs.
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Quote from avarus:

1200 still out there as target for shortside.
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I too can't reconcile these two posts and many other posts.

Initially, I liked avarus for his knowledge and wit.....but he seems to play it both ways...."black" and "white"

then his constant comments about "they" and "them" and "games they play"

makes me wonder....
 
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