ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from Spectre2007:

market has a chance to put in a triple top on the vix and break the trendy for a extended run up in equities, but with another attempt at upper resistance that probability scenario is less, so vix is wedging to blow its top above that upper resistance line above 30...


so a punch below 1260.. means upper resistance in the vix at 30 gets blown....

freefall crash...
 
Quote from brkmarket:

What happened to this short??


where does it say I shorted ?

I said ES would go from 16 to 21 before a pullback

I was wrong it went to 21.5 before pulling back 3 points.
 
I don't know how to get the following quote to show-up inside of hyphens.

today, gwac wrote:

"
There is a big difference in pivot points depending on whether you use globex or rth for yesterday. Any help here on what is better to look at normally.

tia
"

For me (and believe me I calculate pivots and fibs out the wazoo) regular session and globex 24hour Floor Trader Price Pivots are relatively useless on a day following a wide range day. What's more important is H or L from AH, and previous day's zone of congestion during momentum move)

Yesterday was the widest price range day in 27 trade days, usually, markets quite often spend time digesting after a day like yesterday.

mypivots.com calculates the number of days since the last most narrow price range and/or the number of trade days since the last most widest price range everyday. (just go to the mypivots.com page, select ESwhatever and then slide down the statistics page to the Toby Crabel data on the left hand side, at the bottom of the crabel table is data on the widest or narrowest trade day for the past XX tade days.

markets tend to turn when the range for a trade day is narrow (because the lack of range represents an inabiility of prices to continue to trend in their origninal trajectory. and once prices have moved in one direction for a while and then fail to trend further, it could be a sign that new buyers are hesitant and that can prompt position holders to take profits.

On a day following a wide range day, consider generating pivots based on the AH action. I run those numbers AH to 9:00am ET.

AH H was 1330.50 (3 ticks shy of the 50% retracement of the 2/27H to the 3/10L)
AH L was 1319.50 (remember I only count ah to 9:00am)
I just shoved 1321 in for the 9:00 close this morning.

Floor trader pivots based on AH to 9:00am look like this for today.
R3 = 1338.83
R2 = 1334.67
R1 = 1327.83
PP = 1323.67
S1 = 1316.83
S2 = 1312.67
S3 = 1305.83

I think previous chart swing points (also called chart pivots) are more important than FTpivots on a day like today.

pm to JSSPMK, see all this junk I wrote? DOn't you think it's easier if you just look for histo divergence?
:D
 
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