ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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AP nice charts TY!
That bearish weekly bar's close is definitely a bearish indication, we are more likely to head down rather than up, just like your last chart points to.
I agree with Avarus that 900 before Storm's rather ridiculous call for 2000 is very possible, it makes sense & monthly chart is bearish which will take a while to turn neutral to bullish. Monthly TLs point to 1000-1100 & will most likely serve as targets.
That bearish weekly bar's close is definitely a bearish indication, we are more likely to head down rather than up, just like your last chart points to.
I agree with Avarus that 900 before Storm's rather ridiculous call for 2000 is very possible, it makes sense & monthly chart is bearish which will take a while to turn neutral to bullish. Monthly TLs point to 1000-1100 & will most likely serve as targets.
I think we should be a lot lower but it does not matter what I or anyone else thinks.
The market has basically priced in an implosion, so that is why we have trouble going lower at these range bound levels. It will take something new and ugly to get us going below 1300. You never know.
Unless we break the 1320 area and close below. We are going right back up. Sorry hear the same thing each time we get to this level. The range is your friend until the market is no longer in a range. 1320 to 1390ish.
The market has basically priced in an implosion, so that is why we have trouble going lower at these range bound levels. It will take something new and ugly to get us going below 1300. You never know.
Unless we break the 1320 area and close below. We are going right back up. Sorry hear the same thing each time we get to this level. The range is your friend until the market is no longer in a range. 1320 to 1390ish.
i think we are near term oversold and will rally to 1345, thats the 2/15 and 2/20 low trendline that stalled on the way down, before returning down. This ajaskey i've been watching since aug 06 hasn't been wrong yet, he was/is on the"" trading the spx "forum at trade 2 win,thats the only place you could go back and see his posts, he has a site that is currently free, www.ptv-investing.com. Hes just a part time trader who happens to be very well tuned on the mrkts....this is in no way an ad since he doesn't charge but his overall understanding of the gyst of the mrkt is uncanny.
Quote from austinp:
Looks like she might have started the awaited break. A lift and kiss off that upper trendline would be the kiss of death. Bulls gotta press back inside that pattern and break on thru to the other side. Or, 1260 here she comes
Have a great weekend
and this is the 64K question, will they? Your chart analysis does not support it and it looks like we are going to 1260's again. On the other side, that 1330 line has been tested before and ... was held. Also the frantic buying in the last 20 minutes on Friday indicates that the bulls are somewhere in the woods. Question is will they come out in force?
There are also political reasons for keeping this market from collapsing.
1. Election year - nothing would hurt Republicans more than tumbling stock market and a full blown recession.
2. Stability - who want another 1929?
3. All the extra $$$ has to be invested somewhere.
4. With all that extra petro dollars floating around, and collapsing value of US $, the US markets look cheap.
I am not an economists, but it seems that the worst of the economic storm has already been disclosed by the financial institutions and while i do not see 2000 on a horizon just yet, I do see a lot of people with $$$ particularly oil rich and emerging economies who are ready and willing to buy the slice of the American Pie.
Study the anti-bubble of Japan carefully.
That is the blue print to understand what the current US government is trying to do, and what will happen next.
Even with lower commodity prices, that does not automatically implies higher prices in the stock market nor the real estate market. They both can decline in an orderly fashion acceptable to the government and fed. Exactly like what the Japanese government did - lower rates again ang again, providing $ to banks again and again, resulting in nothing more than bail out of the riches and slow blow up of banks one by one.
Studying only the US stock market in the past 100 years, you can conclude that stock markets only goes up over time.
Studying the WORLD markets, in the past 250 years, you can tell that markets can keep dropping for 20 years before recovering.
That is the blue print to understand what the current US government is trying to do, and what will happen next.
Even with lower commodity prices, that does not automatically implies higher prices in the stock market nor the real estate market. They both can decline in an orderly fashion acceptable to the government and fed. Exactly like what the Japanese government did - lower rates again ang again, providing $ to banks again and again, resulting in nothing more than bail out of the riches and slow blow up of banks one by one.
Studying only the US stock market in the past 100 years, you can conclude that stock markets only goes up over time.
Studying the WORLD markets, in the past 250 years, you can tell that markets can keep dropping for 20 years before recovering.
Its a global economy now and IMHO things resolve themselves in a quicker fashion then in past history. It may require a continued devaluation of the $ but so be it. Things will work themselves out pretty fast. Asian crisis is a good example.
Quote from Lawrence Chan:
Study the anti-bubble of Japan carefully.
That is the blue print to understand what the current US government is trying to do, and what will happen next.
Even with lower commodity prices, that does not automatically implies higher prices in the stock market nor the real estate market. They both can decline in an orderly fashion acceptable to the government and fed. Exactly like what the Japanese government did - lower rates again ang again, providing $ to banks again and again, resulting in nothing more than bail out of the riches and slow blow up of banks one by one.
Studying only the US stock market in the past 100 years, you can conclude that stock markets only goes up over time.
Studying the WORLD markets, in the past 250 years, you can tell that markets can keep dropping for 20 years before recovering.
On thursday bernanke said 100 of 1600 banks would fail, lets say thats 1000 times 100 ,thts 100,000 jobs in banks alone,those bank failures would have a large part of credit and housing debt unpaid,would you buy a house,a car now, would you be able to find a new job now, no. So every consumer driven industry is going to lose a little,income and employees, consumer spending is 65-75% of our budget. I think Bernanke, the economy, have no control over this, lowering the interest rate has slowed this down,hopefully they have figured we will survive this blow,but the value of things has to decrease so the mrket will go lower and that is happening now. The interest rate reduction has been used as a pseudo failsafe and it has had some impact but all the bad news isn't out yet and the impact of the damage is not yet known. The people with the deep pockets are all bargain hunters and would not buy now if they can buy it in a month for 10% less.
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