http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_ES.H08.E
Yep, without a doubt nothing can be predicted from spy option interest.
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_ES.H08.E
Yep, without a doubt nothing can be predicted from spy option interest.
Read more here--you'll see.
Until then, consider this gem from the "Introduction to the Wyckoff Method of Stock Market Analysis" course that used to be available from the Stock Market Institute:
"Every market advance begins only after the professional traders have all, or just about all, the shares [contracts] they desire. Once the move begins, it will be carried forward by the increasing and emotional buying of the public..."
There's more, obviously. Eventually the public buys more and more, and the professionals unload, knowing full well that they'll be able to buy it back later, when the weak once again give in to their emotions.
Who are "they"? "They" are the ones who know how the game--yes, the game--is played. They are the shepherds, and they know all about the sheep. The sheep don't know they're sheep. They think they're the shepherd.
Wyckoff believed that "an experienced judge of the market should regard the whole story that appears on The Tape as though it were the expression of a single mind."
The smart money was selling in the 1380's and 1390's earlier this week. Check here on this board. And now the dumb money is selling what they bought earlier this week.
Why? You'll have to ask them.
1290- 1300 but the black box has had a few beverages tonight
:eek:
They leave cues in price action not to anticipate but react to.
If they do than you are a better Sherlock than I am. Naturally, the market going up MON - WED and including previous Friday's gain was clearly whispering "get short", but I doubt one could have seen that 60 point drop.
However, just because I do not see it does not mean others are blind too, for example, smilingsynic stated on Friday (today) that he has bought a position (ES) for a longer period (1 week I think)and is expecting 50 point gain per contract. That is a bold prediction. Volente on the other hand sees the market going to 1290. Both of those guys really KNOW (imho and observation) how to trade. So WHO IS RIGHT AND WHO IS WRONG? Time will tell. In the meantime, if there are clues how come one is stating the opposite of the other's statement?
Here's what SS sees, got no idea what vol is talking about ... but who's to say, he could be right.
I did buy, hoping for 50 points, but when the mid-day rally failed, I bailed. I noted the failed mid-day rally but forgot to post the exit. -3 1/4.
I said that if the mid-day does not get to and hold 50, then I was out. I waited, and sold.
I saw a buy signal at 33.75 but noted here that I was not biting. I had no interest to buy a Friday selloff and to hold over the weekend. Hence, I have no position now.
I will looking to get long on at (1) mid-to-low 1320's Sunday night; or (2) Monday rally and successful retest of low, as per the Taylor book method.
I still see 1400-1420 in the cards. Bear markets need fuel, and the best fuel is shattered dreams. When you hear people like Cramer talking about this resilient market that won't go down, I'll look for evidence of distribution.
If I am wrong, I'll move on and look for a better (meaning good risk-reward) spot. Don't let the bravado here at ET fool you. Everyone loses sometimes.
If we knew for sure, as you say, who was right, and who was wrong, there would be no need for markets.
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