ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from gwac:

Fundamentally nothing has changed. We need some bad news to break us out of this 1320 to 1370 range.

My bold prediction prediction we end up right in the middle of that daily triangle at the end of the day.
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I see a lower close as 240 has now closed totally engulfing the 3rd upside attempt (which has failed) & 4 hour chart when in full swing normally can get probably in the region of 50-70+ point oscillation in ES. And the way daily looks right now I don't see holding longs over weekend as a lucrative proposition.
 
RE the triangle

aren't prices more or less at the point inside the triangle where they should be making a break, out of the triangle?
I seem to recall that the pattern becomes defunct, null and void, a dog, a bow-wow, a barker, a canine catastrophe if price just continues sideways out through the point.

maybe sometime today (might be right near the close) credit agencies could issue opinions (potential downgrades), that might provide a white-knuckle shakeout.

... potential for credit agency announcements... that's what gasparino on cnbc has been hinting at (he doesn't "know") but he is starting to think that announcements are very near in time.

I don't even feel like sitting in front of the computers for the rest of the day.
but my weekend might be better than JSSPMK's:D

Thanks for the charts JSSPMK

good trading to all.:D
 
I do not see being short very smart either. We have been down to the 30 ish area so many times. For a bear market to continue
it needs to break levels. I see us in a range and today is just part of the range.

Break 20 we go below 1300. No break of 20 we go back up and test 70.


We need news on either side to break the range IMHO.


I am happy to play the range until something happens.

Quote from JSSPMK:


I see a lower close as 240 has now closed totally engulfing the 3rd upside attempt (which has failed) & 4 hour chart when in full swing normally can get probably in the region of 50-100 point oscillation in ES. And the way daily looks right now I don't see holding longs over weekend as a lucrative proposition.
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Quote from kinggyppo:

134.15 is the 50% fibonacci retrace of this mornings down move. stop is a little lower than that. Good trading. :)
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out 134.75 added a scalp around 134.91 covered for .20.
Had a short position this morning had trouble getting on et on my laptop. Remember 1340.00 is a big pivot.
 
Quote from vertigo3:

RE the triangle

aren't prices more or less at the point inside the triangle where they should be making a break, out of the triangle? connect 12/26 and 2/04 tops draw line,we're above it trading sideways
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Quote from gwac:

I do not see being short very smart either. We have been down to the 30 ish area so many times. For a bear market to continue
it needs to break levels. I see us in a range and today is just part of the range.

Break 20 we go below 1300. No break of 20 we go back up and test 70.


We need news on either side to break the range IMHO.


I am happy to play the range until something happens.
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Agreed.

In terms of risk/reward, I don't see much to get excited about.

A 50% retrace of the 20 point move down this morning would put us in the low 40's (1341.25--right by S1). There may be a good short opportunity there.

Going long under S1? Not a high probability play either, imo.

At this point, my level of exposure is laughably small.
 
1330 is a key magnet... layers of support. Held the first test as one would expect. If she breaks into the afternoon, especially if it gets tested as overhead resistance past 2pm est, lay on the shorts into closing bell.
 

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S2 is 21.50, which represents right around a 50 point downmove from recent highs of 70.50 (overnight trading on Globex included).

EDIT: Wrong here (knew that didn't sound right). 71.50 was the recent swing high, so S2 would represent a 50 point move.
 
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