ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from avarus:

1453. Short setting up here above 1453.
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That sounds like the plan to me.

There is an open gap at 1459 (March contract). Measured move as well: the move from 1255.50 to 1400 was 144.5, which added to swing low of 1312.75 makes it 1457.25. Once we get past 1420's and 1430's, long term trend followers like our host B1S2 will be starting to get stopped out, and it will look like the clouds are gone, and there is nothing but clear skies ahead.

This is what we call a bear market top.

If it gets close to 1450, put backspreads (sell otm puts, buy deeper otm puts with proceeds). VIX would probably be back under 20 by that point. Targets: 1255.50 low, and then mid 1100's SPX (represents 50% retracement of fall 2002 bear market low to 2007 highs).
 
Quote from ammo:

mandel, if thats a H&s and if it breaks your lokin at 18 point drop which brings us back to trendline we crossed this morn
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While it could happen, I honestly don't believe it will (not today at least).

The bankers are strong, the trin is low, the vix is low, the indices are strong.

Since I follow the trend (or at least, am supposed to), I wouldn't be looking for a short on a day like today.

P.S. Even with the drop from the top, they have they appearance of profit taking (probably from yesterday's bullish reversal) more so than selling (distribution).

The Dow is the indice showing the greatest strength, and the COMPQ is showing weakness. If you guys remember from Osorico's writtings, that divergence should be taken into consideration, but I'm still not going to look for a short and give back the mornings gains.

Good trading.
 
Quote from MandelbrotSet:

While it could happen, I honestly don't believe it will

Good trading.
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i asked this the other day, anyone, does a h&s hsve to go back and touch bo line after brkthru to validate a h&s
 
Quote from ammo:

i asked this the other day, anyone, does a h&s hsve to go back and touch bo line after brkthru to validate a h&s
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I don't trade patterns, the resident expert on them is over on the ankedoten thread, and 4re also has a good handle on them.

But if you're asking does price have to go back up and touch the trendline of a H&S once it's been broken, the answer is probably NO.

If support starts to come in, it will. If everyone is rushing for the exit, it won't.

But I don't see a H&S in the chart, I see what might be a double bottom or a bullish wedge, LOL, that's why I said I don't trade patterns, I found them to be too indecisive.
 
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