ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Quote from Buy1Sell2:
I never concern myself with what the unrealized gains are. I only have interest in what the potential losses could be. I never press the refresh button to see what my account liquidation total is. I only want to know what my loss could be. Therefore, I stay in trades looking for the homeruns. I prefer a larger move than 250. If I don't get it, then I still have knocked off a decent chunk. When the daily chart tells me to get out , then I will. Not before, unless stopped out.
So why move the stop at all then, let the trade work and keep hoping for a move of larger than 250 even though it rarely happens in any given year. Nothing wrong with a home run, but letting a triple turn back into a single because of greed does not stand well in any aspect of trading. Even if we were to get a larger than 250 point move, odds are you would not be in at the top and out at the bottom so you still would not capture it regardless.
Actually, nobody said anything about overleveraging. What Volente and I keep saying is that take the 250 points gain as long as you can. Chances are you are not gonna take much bigger gain.
How many times did you have a 250+ points winner in the last 3 years?
Also, a hypothetical question: Let's say the position goes 400 points in your favour, how do you decide when to get out? With your style it is very likely that you would give back a 150-200 pts unrealized gain anyway....
1 car 100 point stop 250 points = 12500 profit
10 car 2 point stop 25 points = 12500 profit
5 chances to get the 25 points while still having the exact same dollar amount risked as the 1 contract trade hoping for the homerun.
1000 risked versus 5000 risked.
Small market risk, versus large market risk due to long amounts of time having to stay in the trade to get the homerun for the 1 contract.
Both traders risking same amount of tlnw.
Second trader can ALWAYS sell 9 contracts and keep 1 for the homerun if he is right on the trend.
10 car 2 point stop 25 points = 12500 profit
5 chances to get the 25 points while still having the exact same dollar amount risked as the 1 contract trade hoping for the homerun.
1000 risked versus 5000 risked.
Small market risk, versus large market risk due to long amounts of time having to stay in the trade to get the homerun for the 1 contract.
Both traders risking same amount of tlnw.
Second trader can ALWAYS sell 9 contracts and keep 1 for the homerun if he is right on the trend.
anyone get that IHS set up ?
I do not ever get out unless the charts that I am using say I should. Right now, they say that I should stay short and allow myself to get stopped out. I am on much different timeframes than many others. As far as the last 3 years, my biggest ES gain was 248 points. Over the last 8 years though, I did have an ES gain of 518 points one time. This included rolling my short into new months and incurring one new commission each time
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
I do not ever get out unless the charts that I am using say I should. Right now, they say that I should stay short and allow myself to get stopped out. I am on much different timeframes than many others. As far as the last 3 years, my biggest ES gain was 248 points. Over the last 8 years though, I did have an ES gain of 518 points one time. This included rolling my short into new months and incurring one new commission each time
I won't even get into the subject of premium erosion from having to roll over. If you are short great, but on a long it eats into your profits even more with commission.
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