ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from joeyata1:

are the stars lined up for a massive capitulation week?after 9 months of back and forth is it finally time to let it go huge to the downside are will option exp hold us up?
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And the answer is???

[Hint: I'm still short...intraday and extraday.]
 
Quote from joeyata1:

are the stars lined up for a massive capitulation week?after 9 months of back and forth is it finally time to let it go huge to the downside are will option exp hold us up?
More...

the problem is... who is left to capitulate...

most have already from last years price action, its just traders shoving it around..

you need more and more bad news to keep stretching that string...
 
Quote from mbusch:

Retail. The average Joe with his 401K in mutual funds.
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not really... the only people left are multiyear players..

the historical stats and macro effects of FED easing.. its tough to go against the probability..

since 2000 most have been extremely hardened, and the price structure has built up fortitude..

we are basically building a base for a long term structure timed to the statistical upleg projected out from FED easing.
 
Quote from joeyata1:

are the stars lined up for a massive capitulation week?after 9 months of back and forth is it finally time to let it go huge to the downside are will option exp hold us up?
More...





1440 cash next week minimum.
Bear market rallies are the easiest $.
 
i think all this goes back to 2000-2003. look at all the inflow stats and you see nobody capitulated squat. from 97-2000 we had 250-300 bil inflows per year and i believe in the worst year we had 75 bil are so of outflows. the fed interfered in 2003 and prevented the natural capitulation from occuring and here we stand 5 years later with unfinished business down. the fed can only prolong what has to happen they can't stop it.also take into account we've been in a 5 year and 3 month bull market which is one of the longest ever and put that back to back with the longest bull market(91-2000) and you can see even if we revert to the mean its along way down
 
Quote from joeyata1:

i think all this goes back to 2000-2003. look at all the inflow stats and you see nobody capitulated squat. from 97-2000 we had 250-300 bil inflows per year and i believe in the worst year we had 75 bil are so of outflows. the fed interfered in 2003 and prevented the natural capitulation from occuring and here we stand 5 years later with unfinished business down. the fed can only prolong what has to happen they can't stop it.also take into account we've been in a 5 year and 3 month bull market which is one of the longest ever and put that back to back with the longest bull market(91-2000) and you can see even if we revert to the mean its along way down
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it's called a ponzi scheme aka stockmarket

next week will rebound... check the performance of financials over the last 2 days
 
Quote from Alexandre:

it's called a ponzi scheme aka stockmarket

next week will rebound... check the performance of financials over the last 2 days
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I think you are right but lets see. Dow drops more than 200 points and S&P did not drop as used to be. Couple of days when dow dropped 238 points, S&P drop more than 35, but today it just drop less than 20. Even ES just drop 14 points.
 
Quote from monstercat:

No-problem i'll say duh.duh. If you had any brains you'd know 2 dow stocks (axp and mcd) caused the huge skew.
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Why do you need brain to trade? Investors need brain to find out support/resis. level or all other technical and fundamental bull***t. Daytraders just need leverage and plan. Simple.:p
 
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