ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[rc5781]

Just posted this in a thread but thought I might try to get an opinion here...

The open interest in the spx options are huge on the put side right now and paltry on the call side.

spx 1400 puts 88,554 open int
spx 1460 puts 193,648 open int

Is this usually good for predicting resistance levels, for example based on the 1400 puts does it make it very unlikely that we will see levels above 1400 and almost impossible that we see above 1460?

btw, the high today on the spx was 1399.91

 

[mbusch]

I agree with smilingsynic on his longer-than-intraday perspective. I believe we're going down hard.

On an intraday perspective, this upmove still looks healthy, with high volume on ups and lower volume on downs, and a nice-looking two-steps-forward-one-step-back sawtooth. My first profit target is the resistance zone in the 05-06 area, and my second profit target is new highs for the day. If we get there, I'll start looking for a short entry.

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from rc5781:

Just posted this in a thread but thought I might try to get an opinion here...

The open interest in the spx options are huge on the put side right now and paltry on the call side.

spx 1400 puts 88,554 open int
spx 1460 puts 193,648 open int

Is this usually good for predicting resistance levels, for example based on the 1400 puts does it make it very unlikely that we will see levels above 1400 and almost impossible that we see above 1460?

btw, the high today on the spx was 1399.91

There is an open gap around 1460 in the ES (at 1459, I believe).

Open gaps make good targets.

 

[tomahawk]

Do any of you rule-of-10 watchers have any hard data on its success rate in counter-trend situations? For example, so far today (in this downtrending market) we've had two 10-pt up moves in RTH ... the 1st one retraced 100%, and the 2nd one looks like it'll come back down at least 50%, if not all the way (most likely, but not a given).

Thanks.

 

[candles]

Trying a long again here at 1397 - 4 handle stop

 

[mbusch]

Nasty little downmore there. My add-on long from 1397.00 just stopped out for a 1.75-point loss. My initial long from 1393.25 remains remains on with a breakeven stop.

EDIT: Now the initial is stopped out at breakeven and I am flat. I'm stil looking for us to go significantly higher so I can get short. If we keep going down from here, then I've missed the boat.

I still don't expect that to happen because the strong bullish divergence on the 60-min chart (posted earlier) has not yet been resolved.

 

[candles]

Quote from candles:

Trying a long again here at 1397 - 4 handle stop

still in by a whisker.
edit: not any more. Out for -4

 

[tommymoose]

Quote from mbusch:


I still don't expect that to happen because the strong bullish divergence on the 60-min chart (posted earlier) has not yet been resolved.

For the same reason I wouldn't rule out a new low so that a triple divergence is put in on the 15-min... the 60-min is still a double.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

staying short here--ignoring all long signals.

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from JSSPMK:

Short 1399, stop near 1400 off 1 min chart poss divergence triple

-1.5

Short 1401 stop near 1402

Scaled out 2/3 +2.5

1/3 out +7.25 and a visual, very similar to yesterday's entry

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1741853>