ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from smilingsynic:

This classic trend-following approach does not work as well with stock indices as it does with "pure" commodities--agriculturals, bonds, notes, currencies and such.

I'd suggest that the best way to get big winners and small losers with ES by looking for false breakouts and signs of diminishing demand in uptrends and diminishing demand in downtrends (what I have referred to here in the past as the classic Wyckoff approach). This approach offers extremely rich risk/reward ratios, if applied consistently and with discipline.
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It is true that SP is one of the least trendy markets. However, it does trend and acts like any other market when it does so. I would suggest that if a person can perfect trend following with ES SP etc. that they will be tremendous at the other markets. As long as losses are kept small and the trader stays in when the markets goes on a bender, trend following can be profitable in any market. However, I do take your point. :)
 
Quote from mbusch:

Bad idea. Stopped out. The bulls are in charge.
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Bulls are in charge on a very small timeframe only right now. Subject to change as always of course.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

It is true that SP is one of the least trendy markets. However, it does trend and acts like any other market when it does so. I would suggest that if a person can perfect trend following with ES SP etc. that they will be tremendous at the other markets. As long as losses are kept small and the trader stays in when the markets goes on a bender, trend following can be profitable in any market. However, I do take your point. :)
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For example, if you will look here at the monthly SP continuation chart, you can see how SP/ES trends very very well. Perhaps not as well intraday as long term , but a person could certainly have bought a few years ago and gradually raised their stop (401 ker's) etc and been very successful.
 

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Quote from mbusch:

Trying a long here from 1423.75 (upward trendline on 240-tick chart), small size.
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Watch out, we might see some small downside, broke upper trend lines on 5 and 10 min time frames....
 
Quote from mbusch:

Trying a long here from 1423.75 (upward trendline on 240-tick chart), small size.
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Stopped out again. This market is being very uncooperative today--seems to go against me no matter what I try. Maybe it's trying to tell me something. :)
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

For example, if you will look here at the monthly SP continuation chart, you can see how SP/ES trends very very well. Perhaps not as well intraday as long term , but a person could certainly have bought a few years ago and gradually raised their stop (401 ker's) etc and been very successful.
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On a monthly basis, I would agree, the ES trends well, but most traders do not use monthly charts.

ES is different from other commodities/futures in that it is the market with the most manipulation and stop gunning. There are periodic moves whose only purpose, it would seem, is to shake out the weak hands and then to mark it up (like this morning?). The problem that I see with classic trend trading (not intraday trading) the S&P is that the entries take place long after the trend has already begun (that explains the necessity of wide stops).
 
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