ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from Mike Okistini:

My question has been where is the justification for the longs here that is all. No holier than thou or claiming I made the call the go short a long time ago as I am not posting any trade here.

There has been a lot of good analysis and right now all I see are long calls without justification in front of a train heading lower.

The question is a good one given the longs keep getting stopped out here while the only one who grabbed some short profits here has been Apex.
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i don't think you're coming across as "sanctimonious". i think your question is a valid one. i was actually wondering the same thing myself.
 
Quote from Mike Okistini:

long calls without justification in front of a train heading lower.
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I don't know whether you are referring to today or in general, but in regards of "train heading lower" surely that is at the moment just as speculative as an expectation of markets putting in another high. In the EOD, if you are a technical trader, then different time frames would back different POVs and since we are into short term trading here (majority), then it would be prudent to 'trade what you see' that day. There is a lot that can be said to back either bull or bear bias right now, how realistic is it to trade that longer term bias is a different matter. You are of an opinion that markets are about to fall and therefore we ought to look for opportunities to trade from the short side (if I understood you correctly), I do not agree with you on that one, quite simply because I don't carry trades overnight, I try and trade what I see happening today. I had 1 Long trade today, no Shorts.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1728182#post1728182
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

why the market bounced...
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I see your point and to add to that scenario. The ES had bounced off both a 50% retracement and a pivot number. The Russell also stopped on a pivot number! Happy New Year!
 
I can tell you what I have observed in this room when I was reading the dialogue once. Apex said at a certain price level, it would reverse. He said, "Now watch this." Sure enough it reversed exactly like he said it would, right after he said it would. That was real time. It wasn't after the fact, because I was watching the chart, as he was posting. Of course, he doesn't bat a 1.000 and he has some losers. No one has all winners. But, him and some the others really know what they are doing. I recognize I am no where close to these guys. Not by a light year. Take what they give you. And if you can't figure out why they did it, don't challenge them. The ones that know what they are doing may say, "Hell with this, why waste my time in this room." Of course no one should make trades based on an annyomous discourse on a public board. But, there is something to be learned. Now I have sufficiently kissed ass to those who know what they are doing, I'll be quiet.

Quote from Mike Okistini:

My question has been where is the justification for the longs here that is all. No holier than thou or claiming I made the call the go short a long time ago as I am not posting any trade here.

There has been a lot of good analysis and right now all I see are long calls without justification in front of a train heading lower.

The question is a good one given the longs keep getting stopped out here while the only one who grabbed some short profits here has been Apex.
More...
 
if you lurk here a bit, you can kinda pick up on who is a trader.
if nothing else, it's fun watching. but yeah, i like the educational aspect that goes along with it.
and ever once in a while, if your patient, they'll toss a bone your way.

:p
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

I don't know whether you are referring to today or in general, but in regards of "train heading lower" surely that is at the moment just as speculative as an expectation of markets putting in another high. In the EOD, if you are a technical trader, then different time frames would back different POVs and since we are into short term trading here (majority), then it would be prudent to 'trade what you see' that day. There is a lot that can be said to back either bull or bear bias right now, how realistic is it to trade that longer term bias is a different matter. You are of an opinion that markets are about to fall and therefore we ought to look for opportunities to trade from the short side (if I understood you correctly), I do not agree with you on that one, quite simply because I don't carry trades overnight, I try and trade what I see happening today. I had 1 Long trade today, no Shorts.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1728182#post1728182
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Intra-day trading is actually holding less and less interest for me these days. The bulk of the real moves are over a 2 to 10 day period of time ... and on a comparitive basis I find that they have much less risk involved with them and significantly more reward ... consistently when measured apples to apples.

Of course there is the overnight risk which cannot be ignored, but when working with sufficient equity, that becomes less and less of a concern, and you can trade substantially more instruments via position trading than you can intra-day, because you just don't have to pay attention to what is happening on a second by second basis.

Good trading,

I

P.S. The patterns of Supply and Demand are much more obvious ... too.
 
Quote from Icarus5:

Intra-day trading is actually holding less and less interest for me these days. The bulk of the real moves are over a 2 to 10 day period of time ... and on a comparitive basis I find that they have much less risk involved with them and significantly more reward ... consistently when measured apples to apples.

Of course there is the overnight risk which cannot be ignored, but when working with sufficient equity, that becomes less and less of a concern, and you can trade substantially more instruments via position trading than you can intra-day, because you just don't have to pay attention to what is happening on a second by second basis.

Good trading,

I

P.S. The patterns of Supply and Demand are much more obvious ... too.
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Jim, it all depends whether you can catch that move and not put your position through a substantial DD. Also you might need to reduce position size, if you do that then eventual goal will not be as appealing as a full size position even though in % terms you manage to achieve a better return. I tried swing trading futures and failed, to do that properly you would need to achieve Apex's understanding of major support and resistance, otherwise you will most likely end up having way too many losing trades before you hit a homerun ImO.

You might want to concentrate on futures that offer mini ranges that are a lot more lucrative when compared to ES considering an average intraday mini trend/oscillation vs the spread/comm costs. That way you can sustain minimum heat with full position and achieve daily results.
 
Nice bullish divergence in the ES.

Does it gaurantee a positive close next Monday?

No ... but historically the first week of Jan is an up week, so I'll go with that.

I
 

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Quote from JSSPMK:

Jim, it all depends whether you can catch that move and not put your position through a substantial DD. Also you might need to reduce position size, if you do that then eventual goal will not be as appealing as a full size position even though in % terms you manage to achieve a better return. I tried swing trading futures and failed, to do that properly you would need to achieve Apex's understanding of major support and resistance, otherwise you will most likely end up having way too many losing trades before you hit a homerun ImO.
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Nope, you just need to continue working at it and develop your own skill level. Everyone's brain processes information differently, so you just need to figure out what works for you and become better and better at it. :)

Position trading really is much more profitable, easier and less time intensive than scalping. Trends, once they reveal themselsves, are rather obvious after the first 10% in and up to the last 10% of the move ... so that's about 80% of any move that can be captured

Quote from JSSPMK:

You might want to concentrate on futures that offer mini ranges that are a lot more lucrative when compared to ES considering an average intraday mini trend/oscillation vs the spread/comm costs. That way you can sustain minimum heat with full position and achieve daily results.
More...

I hear what you're saying, but since the ES is so scalable, it doesn't really matter.

Good trading,

I
 
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