ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from tortoise:

I have a question that's so basic, I probably should know the answer by now. Having said that, here goes...

When we speak of stops needing to be run, etc., it implies an unseen hand working, behind the scenes, to effect some kind of master plan. Now, I realize that with stocks, the market makers can and do play these sorts of games. But the ES is a different beast. So, who is it that decides stops must be run on the ES, etc.? And who is it that has the wherewithal to act on this decision? Thnx...
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one thing you have to understand is the number of people who actively daytrade is very small, and the number of people who actively daytrade futures is even smaller.

well funded futures accounts are the ones that persist over time, underfunded novices are the fodder for these large institutions.

knowing where the stops are means your blowing someones position. Usually stops are clustered around daily support or resistance, or notable chart points.

Since some large equity funds may use whole numbers or a retest of 1380 as a trend change to exit positions, it becomes advantageous to take price to those levels to blow out positions and then revert price back up to the other end of the ATR to break another group of positions.

And if you notice, thats whats been happening.
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

1418 was last december's cash close, 7% on 1418 is 99 points...or 1517. 1 year t-bills giving 3.26%...

3.26% on 1418, equals 1464 on cash, for equities to stay competitive, market has to seem to register a higher rate of return on the index then t-bills...

cash closed today at 1453...around 10 points below..

5.13%..on 1418..equals 1490. Midway between t-bill rate and ideal rate of 7%, if it can't meet any of these benchmarks, then flight out of equities will occur early next year.

http://www.hussman.net/html/longterm.htm
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:)
 
It was simply, a change of a trend and those paying attention had a chance to catch the boat.

At least on the NQ it was a chain of events.

On a small scale level you had....

The intraday chart finish the day closing on a bull flag.

The AH action made the flag breakout, confirming more upside to come.

The multi day chart had an inverse head and shoulder react by the push of the bull flag and broke the multi day downtrend line.

And top it off all supported by daily trendline support.

One of the easiest most convincing plays Ive seen in a long time.

The kind you take with full conviction and heavy size as it required nothing than a miniscule stop.

Attached the multi day anchor showing mostly a summary of the action.

Anek
 

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